July 15, 2026
(Washington, D.C.) – Leading election results and data provider Decision Desk HQ today released their 2026 Midterm forecast for both the U.S. House and Senate ahead of this November’s midterm elections.
"Election season too often rewards whoever shouts loudest. Our models give both media and business clients something better: a rigorous, unbiased, quantitative read on where a race actually stands," said Drew McCoy, DDHQ President.
According to the model, divided control of Congress is the most likely outcome with Democrats having a 62% chance to win a majority of seats in the House, while Republicans have a 57% chance to maintain control of the Senate.
“Right now we are seeing an electoral environment that favors Democrats on the whole with the two leading indicators being the generic congressional ballot and President Donald Trump’s job approval rating. Democrats lead in our congressional ballot average of public polls by 4%, while Trump’s approval rating is underwater at 42% approval and 55% disapproval. Right now that shows Democrats with 227 seats in the House and in the Senate, Republicans with 50 seats, plus the Vice President’s tie-breaking vote.“, said Geoffrey Skelley, Decision Desk HQ’s Chief Elections Analyst.
In 2024, Decision Desk HQ's presidential model showed Trump as the most likely winner and correctly favored him in six of seven key swing states, as noted by The New York Times.
“We are always working to improve our process and products so this year we are including Kalshi and Polymarket prediction market data, for which Decision Desk HQ received no compensation, into our forecast. While these markets are relatively new, we believe there is signal to be gleaned from them, especially around the impact of breaking news that may take weeks to show up in polling.” according to Director of Data Science at Decision Desk HQ, Scott Tranter.
For a full look at the forecast model, including the methodology statement, visit votes.decisiondeskhq.com.
About Decision Desk HQ
Decision Desk HQ is a leading provider of real-time election results, race projections and related data, and the only provider to cover US elections from the presidency and Congress to the county and city level. Launched in 2012 and dedicated to the idea that emerging technology would improve the speed and accuracy while lowering the cost of collecting and providing election returns to media outlets, financial service sector clients, and other interested parties, Decision Desk was the first organization to project the presidency for Donald Trump in 2016, then Vice President Joe Biden in 2020, and once again for Donald Trump in 2024. As the only results provider to cover elections at all levels, Decision Desk HQ covers upwards of one hundred thousand races a year, tens of thousands more than our competitors. We continue to innovate with new technologies to drive more efficient results reporting that prioritizes accuracy, supports local coverage, and strengthens trust in the democratic process.
Editorial Contact:
Geoffrey Skelley
Chief Elections Analyst
Business Development:
Rob Schack
Senior Vice President of Partnerships