A competitive race begets more competitive races. That is what happened in 2018 when Robert “Beto” O’Rourke lost the 2018 Senate race to Ted Cruz by under 3%. Democrats flipped two Congressional districts, two State Senate districts, 12 State Representative districts, and gave incumbent Republicans a scare in numerous others. Biden is presently polling competitively […]
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Competitive Congressional Races in the Lone Star State (3/3)
Around The Desk: The DDHQ Turnout Model
The 2020 election presents a number of challenges, one of which is predicting turnout. In the past reporting services like Decision Desk HQ used “Precincts Reporting” as the metric to gauge how much of the vote was in in a particular county or state. With more and more people voting early or by mail, even […]
Once Reliably Republican, Georgia Emerges As Presidential Battleground
After years of trying and coming up short, can Democrats finally achieve their goal of turning Georgia blue? Georgia has been a reliably Republican state in presidential politics for decades now. Since 1984, only one Democratic presidential candidate has carried the Peach State: Bill Clinton in 1992. Since then, Democrats have never made a serious […]
Competitive Congressional Races in the Lone Star State (2/3)
Updates to Part 1: We at DDHQ yesterday moved TX-06 to Likely R, and FiveThirtyEight moved TX-24 to Toss-Up. The NRCC announced they would spend an additional 772K on ads in TX-24. Robert “Beto” O’Rourke’s 2018 political coalition shattered the Texas Republican Gerrymander. Districts designed to safely reelect incumbent Republicans became marginal races. O’Rourke’s […]