Last night, Georgia had it’s final statewide election of the year. In November, State Rep. Brad Raffensperger (R) finished with 49.1% to ex-Rep. John Barrow’s (D) 48.7% for Secretary of State. The balance went to… Read More
2018 Midterm Forecasting model analysis- How well did we do?
UPDATE: The post below has been updated to reflect the Democratic flip of CA-21 and the results of the Mississippi special election. It is now up-to-date as of November 29th. Introduction The following document presents… Read More
RACE CALL RETRACTION IN CA-21
Decision Desk HQ is retracting the call we made in the CA-21 race. On election night we called the race for incumbent Congressman David Valadao over Democratic challenger T.J. Cox. Valadao finished election night with… Read More
Uncalled Races Update
As of this writing, DDHQ has not called four House contests: CALIFORNIA-39 GEORGIA-07 TEXAS-23 UTAH-04 California’s 39th remains uncalled due to the outstanding vote count. Republican Young Kim sported a lead on election night, but… Read More
Øptimus Election Modeling Preliminary Recap
Now that Election Day is “over” (minus California and a few close races), we have a preliminary look at how our legislative model has performed. The following analysis only includes races that have been called,… Read More
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update November 5, 2018
On the eve of Election Day, there is a high likelihood of split chamber control of Congress once the dust settles. In the past week, the national environment shifted from D+7.9 to D+7.1 while presidential… Read More
DDHQ Election Night Viewing Guide: 9pm to 10pm Eastern
Just one more day and then all the campaigning, ads, and polling are over and we finally find out what’s really going to happen. Our election night results site is now live. There are a lot… Read More
Poll Release: AZ01 and OH07
As Election Day approaches, we took and in-depth look at our Congressional model to see if there were any districts in need of polling. We just went over 500 House polls released in 2018, and… Read More
Presenting the 2018 Øptimus Gubernatorial (Polling) Model
As we head into the final weekend before Election Day, we’re excited to reveal our gubernatorial probabilities. While we did not apply our House and Senate methodology to produce a full gubernatorial model, we wanted… Read More
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update November 2, 2018
As it was at the beginning of the week, the model is stable in the House and moved slightly towards Republicans in the Senate since Monday. The national environment shifted from D+7.9 compared to D+7…. Read More