After the big movement in the model at the end of last week due to the record-breaking fundraising quarter by Democrats, the model settles down this week. The national environment continues to creep back up… Read More
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 18, 2018
As predicted, Q3 FEC reports shook up the race a bit, with House Democrats now overwhelming favorites to take a majority and Senate Democrats somewhat improving their standing (though Republicans are still strong favorites). The… Read More
The Hot Seat: Arizona’s 2nd
Arizona’s 2nd has suffered an acute case of whiplash, going from one of the most competitive seats to a secured Republican victory in 2016, and now looking to zoom back to a comfortable Democratic win… Read More
State Spotlight: Montana Senate
Montana is another key state deciding control of the Senate in this year’s midterm election. Senator Jon Tester (D) is pursuing his third-term against Montana state auditor Matt Rosendale (R). Despite his deep-red state’s R+11… Read More
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 15, 2018
With just 3 weeks left until Election Day, our model is fairly confident in the outcomes of both chambers. While there is still time for change, and while great odds are not the same as… Read More
State Spotlight: Minnesota, From 2012 to Today, Pt. 2
Today we’ll continue our look at Minnesota’s competitive House elections. We will focus now on the districts where Republicans are in serious danger, MN-2 and MN-3. Minnesota’s 2nd congressional district – containing the cities of… Read More
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 8, 2018
With less than 30 days left until Election Day, our model took a turn towards Republicans this week, though Democrats are still strong favorites to retake the House of Representatives. The generic ballot national environment shifted… Read More
State Spotlight: Minnesota, From 2012 to Today, Pt. 1
Minnesota is one of the key states that will decide control of the House in this year’s midterm election. And Minnesota is unique in at least one regard: this is probably the only state where… Read More
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 1, 2018
With 36 days remaining, our model continues to track towards Democrats in the House while holding steady for Republicans in the Senate. The generic ballot national environment shifted down to D+8 this week but was… Read More
State Spotlight: Michigan, From 2016 to Today
Donald Trump’s narrow victory in Michigan was one of election night 2016’s bigger surprises. Despite its perennial battleground status, Michigan had not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since George H. W. Bush in 1988…. Read More