Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill’s (D) race against attorney general Josh Hawley (R) is one of the key races that will decide control of the Senate in this November’s midterm election. Despite Missouri’s steady march to… Read More
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 17, 2018
With 50 days left until Election Day, our model moves slightly towards Republicans this week in the aggregate. The generic ballot national environment continued to go up for Democrats, now sitting at D+9.3, but the… Read More
Washington’s 5th District – Primary Results
Washington’s 5th Congressional District takes up the eastern end of the state. It starts at the Canadian borders, runs down to include the city of Spokane, and ends touching the Oregon border: While the district… Read More
Forecaster and model assessments of the House and Senate
While we have our own House and Senate model, which currently give the Democrats an 80.13% chance of winning the former with 224 seats, and the Republicans an 84.77% chance of retaining the latter with… Read More
New York Primary Preview
The end of the road is here! The 2018 primary season started back on March 6th in Texas and ends tonight in NY, some 740 races (give or take) later. We’re only here tonight because… Read More
Senate Model Comparison: Øptimus and FiveThirtyEight’s Predictions
Earlier today, FiveThirtyEight released their much-anticipated Senate model. We thought it’d be interesting to see how the Øptimus model predictions compare to theirs. The numbers below are all based off of our 9/11 model update and… Read More
Rhode Island Primary Preview
Fourty-seven states down, two to go in primary 2018. Tonight, it’s Rhode Island’s turn. The state has been lopsidedly Democratic in the Presidential vote for decades, but it elected Republican Governors for twelve straight years… Read More
First in the Presidential, Near Last in the State Primaries: New Hampshire Preview
Something Different For Decision Desk HQ Readers Tonight In New Hampshire: Look, you are going to read plenty of race previews for New Hampshire, if you’re that big of an election junkie. So let’s get… Read More
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 10, 2018
With less than 2 months until Election Day, our model continues to shift towards Democratic control in the House while holding steady on Republican chances in the Senate. The generic ballot national environment generates most… Read More
State Spotlight: Indiana 2012
Joe Donnelly (D) is one of the most vulnerable senators up for reelection this November, and he faces an uphill battle against Republican opponent Mike Braun. Donnelly’s first victory – in the wake of Republican Richard… Read More