The Democratic Primary in NY-16 was one of the most watched congressional primaries this year. With changes in voting due to Covid-19 it was expected that it would be a week or more before we could call the race. Having made the call today we wanted to explain why we were able to do so.
First, Bowman surged to an unexpectedly large lead, 11,802 votes, through early and election day in-person ballots.
He leads in the portion of both counties, The Bronx and Westchester, that make up the district.
Still, the critical factor is the absentee votes.
This morning Decision Desk HQ contacted officials in both counties and found that of the 24,877 ballots that were mailed out in The Bronx portion of the district, only 2,079 have been returned. In the Westchester part of NY-16, 36,323 were mailed out, only 19,249 have been returned.
Even allowing for additional ballots to trickle in over the next few days, the return rate and the margin by which Engel would have to win them, dictate a call at this point for Bowman.