Estimate on the Nuclear Option for Neil Gorsuch

As it is clear Democrats intend to filibuster the nomination of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell had reiterated he will get Gorsuch confirmed. His only resort against a 43-vote block on ending debate: killing the Supreme Court filibuster via the nuclear option. The Republicans need just a bare majority to pull this off, and per statements from the only questionable Republicans on this matter-McCain, Graham, and Collins- by our estimate, they have enough willing Senators to do just that.

Here is how we currently see such a vote shaping out. The only question mark for us is Susan Collins, but from her rhetoric on the Senate floor this past week, she may be persuaded to make this a fully partisan vote.

Senate Vote Estimate

Democrats* Republicans
Alabama Shelby Strange
Alaska Murkowski Sullivan
Arizona McCain Flake
Arkansas Boozeman Cotton
California Feinstein Harris
Colorado Bennet Gardner
Connecticut Blumenthal Murphy
Delaware Carper Coons
Florida Nelson Rubio
Georgia Isakson Perdue
Hawaii Schatz Hirono
Idaho Crapo Risch
Illinois Durbin Duckworth
Indiana Donnelly Young
Iowa Grassley Ernst
Kansas Roberts Moran
Kentucky McConnell Paul
Louisiana Cassidy Kennedy
Maine King (i) Collins
Maryland Cardin Van Hollen
Massachusetts Warren Markey
Michigan Stabenow Peters
Minnesota Klobuchar Franken
Mississippi Cochran Wicker
Missouri McCaskill Blunt
Montana Tester Daines
Nebraska Fischer Sasse
Nevada Cortez Masto Heller
New Hampshire Shaheen Hassan
New Jersey Menendez Booker
New Mexico Udall Heinrich
New York Schumer Gillibrand
North Carolina Burr Tillis
North Dakota Heitkamp Hoeven
Ohio Brown Portman
Oklahoma Inhofe Lankford
Oregon Wyden Merkley
Pennsylvania Casey Toomey
Rhode Island Reed Whitehouse
South Carolina Graham Scott
South Dakota Thune Rounds
Tennessee Alexander Corker
Texas Cornyn Cruz
Utah Hatch Lee
Vermont Leahy Sanders (i)
Virginia Warner Kaine
Washington Murray Cantwell
West Virginia Manchin Moore Capito
Wisconsin Baldwin Johnson
Wyoming Enzi Barrasso
Democrats* 0 0 48
Republicans 51 1 0
Total 51 1 48
*Two Independents caucus with Democrats.
Likely Support, Likey Oppose, Unknown/No Info