Current Estimate on Passage of the American Health Care Act in the U.S. Senate

Numerous Senate┬áRepublicans have made it clear they will not vote for the House’s current Affordable Care Act replacement plan, the American Health Care Act. Medicaid expansion is the most common reason for Senators balking, and has been cited by Shelly Moore Capito, Rob Portman, Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, and Cory Gardner. Others have dubbed it “Obamacare-lite”, like Mike Lee, Ted Cruz, and Rand Paul. We have assumed the remaining Republicans are yeas with mild adjustments to the law. Republican Leaders were hoping to pass it through reconciliation, bypassing the filibuster threat from Democrats, none of whom support the bill. But without considerable revisions, it’s D.O.A.

Update- Steve Daines joins the crowd of Senate Republicans opposing the current bill, and McCain and Graham appear unsold on the bill as-is, want revisions. 3/14/2017

Update- Collins, Paul, and Lee are all solid nays now. More Senators below are listed as nays due to statements about the House bill, but even if the rest changed their minds, three defections is one too many for passage. 3/21/2017

Senate Vote Estimate

Democrats* Republicans
Alabama Shelby Strange
Alaska Murkowski Sullivan
Arizona McCain Flake
Arkansas Boozeman Cotton
California Feinstein Harris
Colorado Bennet Gardner
Connecticut Blumenthal Murphy
Delaware Carper Coons
Florida Nelson Rubio
Georgia Isakson Perdue
Hawaii Schatz Hirono
Idaho Crapo Risch
Illinois Durbin Duckworth
Indiana Donnelly Young
Iowa Grassley Ernst
Kansas Roberts Moran
Kentucky McConnell Paul
Louisiana Cassidy Kennedy
Maine King (i) Collins
Maryland Cardin Van Hollen
Massachusetts Warren Markey
Michigan Stabenow Peters
Minnesota Klobuchar Franken
Mississippi Cochran Wicker
Missouri McCaskill Blunt
Montana Tester Daines
Nebraska Fischer Sasse
Nevada Cortez Masto Heller
New Hampshire Shaheen Hassan
New Jersey Menendez Booker
New Mexico Udall Heinrich
New York Schumer Gillibrand
North Carolina Burr Tillis
North Dakota Heitkamp Hoeven
Ohio Brown Portman
Oklahoma Inhofe Lankford
Oregon Wyden Merkley
Pennsylvania Casey Toomey
Rhode Island Reed Whitehouse
South Carolina Graham Scott
South Dakota Thune Rounds
Tennessee Alexander Corker
Texas Cornyn Cruz
Utah Hatch Lee
Vermont Leahy Sanders (i)
Virginia Warner Kaine
Washington Murray Cantwell
West Virginia Manchin Moore Capito
Wisconsin Baldwin Johnson
Wyoming Enzi Barrasso
Democrats* 0 0 48
Republicans 38 0 14
Total 38 0 62
*Two Independents caucus with Democrats.
Likely Support, Likey Oppose, Unknown/No Info