Note: This post was written as part of DDHQ’s effort to expand election coverage through the use of AI combined with our proprietary election data. This process is separate from our results and race calls which are still run exclusively by our class leading human team.
Virginia’s state legislature elections have concluded, with polls across the Commonwealth closing at 7:00 PM Eastern Time. Today’s vote marks a pivotal moment, potentially altering the balance of power in a closely divided state legislature. The elections have been a litmus test for Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin’s administration, as voters determine the makeup of the General Assembly, which will either bolster or curb his legislative agenda.
Throughout the campaign, Democrats have worked to maintain their narrow lead in the State Senate, while Republicans, energized by Youngkin’s previous victory and the flipping of the House of Delegates, aimed to extend their influence by targeting vulnerable Democratic seats. Record-breaking spending on advertisements and campaign outreach reflected the intensity of the electoral contest, highlighting the importance of these races not just for state policy, but also for setting the stage ahead of the next presidential election cycle.
The competitive races in districts such as SD16, SD17, SD24, and SD31 have been particularly fierce battlegrounds, with both parties recognizing their potential to sway the Senate’s control. The House of Delegates also witnessed critical contests, especially in districts like HD, 22, HD30, HD 41, HD58, and HD65, where outcomes could indicate a shift in the state’s political alignment. As the votes are being tallied, the results from these key districts will soon reveal the future political landscape of Virginia, setting the stage for the governance and political narratives in the years to come.
Decision Desk HQ will be providing comprehensive coverage of the outcomes as they emerge. After the closure of the polls at 7:00 PM Eastern Time, timely updates and in-depth analysis will be available, offering clarity and insight into the state’s political future. Stay tuned to Decision Desk HQ for the latest developments and accurate election results.
Virginia’s 16th Senate District
The Virginia 16th District Senate election is taking the spotlight this November 7th. Current Senate is standing at 22-17 in favor of Democrats with one seat left vacant. Senator Siobhan Dunnavant of the Republican Party is running for re-election against Democrat Schuyler VanValkenburg amidst a backdrop of substantial political shifts. Notably, Joe Biden won by a margin of 17% in the 2020 presidential race and Terry McAuliffe of the Democratic Party secured victory with a margin of 6% in the 2021 gubernatorial contest. The surplus of Democratic victories suggests a favorable shift for Schuyler VanValkenburg.
Besides highlighting the potential change in political wind, attention must also be given to demographic composition. The population includes a 63% white majority, followed by 15% black, 14% Asian, 6% Hispanic, and 1% Native American representation. Clearly, the district lacks in diversity, composed mainly of white, suburban residents.
Many speculate the district stands to flip Democratic based on historical results. Whether this folds true into reality remains to be seen, but Democrats are confident in their chances here. The leeway in the 2021 gubernatorial race was less than 10 points, making the district competitive on paper. However, the upcoming elections seem to portend a loss for Dunnavant.
Virginia’s 17th Senate District
Virginia’s 17th Senate District bursts into the election spotlight on November 7th. The seat is up for grabs, with no incumbent in the race leading to a face-off between Republican Emily Brewer and Democrat Clint Jenkins. This 4-year term opens a key opportunity to change the current balance of the Senate, with 22 Democrats, 17 Republicans, and 1 vacancy. History tips the district slightly toward the Republican side – a thumb on the scale seen when Republican Glenn Youngkin won the 2021 gubernatorial race by 5%.
Despite the Republican lean, the district shows signs of competitiveness. The 2020 presidential race saw only a 7% victory margin with Democrat Joe Biden winning the district. This close call highlights the possible swing status of the district that could make an interesting watch on election night. The rich demographic blend makes this potential change even more interesting.
A vibrant mix of cultures calls the 17th Senate District home adding layers to the political landscape. The district’s diversity reveals itself in a wide demographic range with a 51.5% white, 42.2% Black, 3.0% Hispanic, 1.9% Asian, and 1.9% Native American populations. This patchwork of communities adds a multifaceted lens through which to examine this critical election.
Virginia’s 24th Senate District
Virginia’s 24th Senate District election is billed for November 7th. It’s a crucial race to fill in the Democratic vacancy, with no incumbent in the race. The contest is between Republican candidate Danny Diggs and Democrat Monty Mason. The district, with a White population of 56%, shows a level of diversity. Having differed in political alignment in 2020 and 2021, the district voted Democrat in the 2020 Presidential election by a margin of 9%, then voted Republican in the 2021 gubernatorial election by a margin of 4%. This political shift renders the district a tossup.
What’s at stake is the balance of power in Virginia’s Senate, currently standing at 22 Democrats, 17 Republicans, with the 24th District’s seat vacant. This election will determine the controlling party for the coming four-year term, and will be crucial in overall control of the Senate. No incumbent is running, increasing the uncertainty around the result. The margin of the previous gubernatorial and presidential elections in the district indicates a highly competitive race.
The demographics of the district reflects the nation’s diversity – a salient factor likely to influence the election’s outcome. A diverse mix of White, Hispanic, Black, Asian and Native American populations are represented in the district. Given the district’s demographics and its changing political predisposition, the 24th District election outcome could go either way.
Virginia’s 27th Senate District
The upcoming Virginia 27th Senate District election holds significance. Slated for November 7th, the absence of an incumbent leaves a vacuum to be filled between Republican Tara Durant and Democrat Joel Griffin. With the current Senate composition showing 22 Democrats, 17 Republicans, and a single vacancy, this contest steps into the spotlight. A full four-year term is hanging in the balance.
The political landscape of the 27th Senate district is distinct, shaping a uniquely competitive race. Historical results reveal Joe Biden, a Democrat, taking the 2020 presidential race, however, by a modest margin of roughly 6%. Fast forward to the 2021 gubernatorial contest, Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, emerged victorious with a winning margin near 8%. This hotly-contested seat is expected to be competitive in the 2023 election.
Encapsulating demographic data unveils a predominantly white population at 61%. The district also comprises Hispanics at around 12%, Blacks constitute roughly 21%, Asians are approximately 5%, and Native Americans about 3%. The spotlight is set on the 27th Senate District, revealing a less diverse but decidedly balanced political landscape.
Virginia’s 31st Senate District
The race for the 31st Senate District of Virginia promises to be an electrifying event in the state’s political landscape. Slated for November 7th, this election carries significance due to the absence of an incumbent Republican Sen. Jill Vogel. The high-profile contest pits Juan Pablo Segura of the Republican party against Democratic candidate Russet Perry. The district is mostly comprised of white voters, who make up 66% of the population.
Historical voting patterns suggest a closely fought race ahead. In recent memory, the 2020 presidential election saw a Democratic triumph with Joe Biden winning by a margin of 13%. However, a 2021 gubernatorial tilt towards the Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin by just 0.6% indicates a political pendulum swinging both ways, making this district a tossup. This back-and-forth certainly sets the stage for a tantalizing showdown.
Adding intrigue, the vacating seat contributes to the political balance of power in the Senate – currently dominated by the Democrats with 22 seats against 17 for Republicans. With no incumbent running for re-election, and a razor-thin winning margin in the latest gubernatorial election, the contest in Virginia’s 31st Senate District remains anyone’s game, underscoring the volatile nature of politics in this region.
Virginia House District 22
The upcoming House of Delegates election in Virginia’s 22nd District is a pivotal event. Slated for November 7th, this election will decide who will assume the vacant position in a House currently comprised of 48 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and 6 vacancies. The term length for the newly elected delegate will be four years. Notably, the incumbent is not seeking re-election, leaving Republican Ian Lovejoy and Democrat Travis Nembhard vying for the essential seat.
Remember the 2020 Presidential election? Democrat Joe Biden was the winner, securing a 5.7% margin. Contrast that with the 2021 gubernatorial election when Republican Glenn Younkin claimed victory with a 5.4% margin. The district, as it stands now, leans Republican. Still, the recent history of alternating party victories offers an intriguing backdrop to the impending election.
The population profile of Virginia’s 22nd District is also worth considering. White citizens make up 60.6% of the demographic, with Hispanic, Black, and Asian communities represented by 12.7%, 11.9%, and 13.2% respectively. Native Americans constitute 2.1% of the population. Though not highly diverse, the district boasts a substantial proportion of different ethnic groups, which may impact the election results.
Virginia House District 30
The race for Virginia’s 30th House of Delegates has heated up due to the forthcoming election which is scheduled to unfold on November 7th. The stakes are high, considering the current composition of the house which holds 48 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and 6 open spots. The position, which carries a term length of four years, is a valuable one, yet the current holder will not be seeking re-election. The candidates hoping to fill the coveted spot are Republican Geary Higgins and Democrat Robert Banse Jr.
The political scene of the past may have an impact on this district as well; In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden won the district by a mere margin of 0.7%. However, the district took a swing in favor of Republicans in 2021, when Glenn Youngkin won the gubernatorial election by a sizeable 13.5% margin. Consequently, the district leans toward Republicans at this coming election, following the trajectory of the 2021 gubernatorial win.
Furthermore, the demographic composition of the district may also play a role in swaying the vote. 75.1% of the district’s population is white, with Hispanic, Black, Asian, and Native American communities contributing 7.2%, 5.5%, 10.1%, and 1.8% respectively. Overall, aside from a comparatively large Asian population, the district does not exhibit exceptional diversity.
Virginia House District 41
The race for Virginia’s 41st House of Delegates district is heating up. On November 7th, voters will decide between Republican J. Christian Obenshain and Democrat Lily Franklin. It’s a big decision, especially as the current House of Delegates sits at 48 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and 6 vacancies. The winning candidate will serve a 4-year term.
Recently, this district has swayed towards the Republican Party, with Donald Trump winning the 2020 Presidential elections by a thin margin of 0.8%. An even stronger preference towards the Republicans was shown in the 2021 gubernatorial race, where Glenn Youngkin bagged an 11% margin victory. The district is marked as likely Republican by election prognosticators.
Although the composition of the voters in this district is predominantly White (79%), it also includes Hispanic (4%), Black (4.1%), Asian (11.3%), and Native American (1.4%) populations.
Virginia House District 57
Virginia’s 57th House of Delegates district is gearing up for another closely watched election on November 7th. This race takes on special significance as Virginia’s current House of Delegates holds a precarious balance, with 48 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and 6 vacancies. The departing incumbent for this district is notably not running for re-election, opening the field for Republican candidate David Owen and Democrat Susanna Gibson to vie for the 4-year term.
The 57th district has a history of tight races and shifting political leanings. The Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, clinched the presidential race here in 2020 with a 5.4% margin. However, Republican Glenn Youngkin turned the tables in the subsequent 2021 gubernatorial race, winning by a 3.6% margin. Overall, the district is expected to lean Republican.
In terms of demographics, the 57th district is predominantly White, with 64.6% of the population. Asian residents make up the next largest group at 19.7%, followed by Black and Hispanic residents at 9.8% and 4.3% respectively. Native Americans account for 1.1% of the population.
Virginia House District 58
Election season approaches in Virginia’s 58th House of Delegates district with the race underway on November 7th. Key contenders for the four-year term include the current incumbent Rodney Willett, Democrat, and Republican rival Riley Shaia. Given the current balance of power sits at 48 Republicans, 46 Democrats with six vacant spots, securing this seat presents an important strategic move. Willett, emboldened by a track record of Democratic victory in recent years, seeks re-election while Shaia hopes to take back the district for Republicans.
Glancing back to past results, the district has trended Democratic. Both Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe triumphed in 2020 and 2021 respectively. Biden’s victory margin was a notable 16.1%, while McAuliffe edged a win by a 4.0% margin. The verdict is that the 58th district is likely to lean Democratic in the forthcoming election.
Demographics play a crucial role in political leanings. The 58th district is primarily suburban and not notably diverse. The population is 70.6% White, 11% Black, 10.1% Asian, 6.5% Hispanic and 1.3% Native American.
Virginia House District 65
Virginia’s 65th House of Delegates district awaits an exciting toss-up election on November 7th. Republican candidate Lee Peters III is vying for the vacancy left by incumbent Delegate Tara Durant, against Democrat Joshua Cole. With the current House standing at 48 Republicans, 46 Democrats and 6 vacancies, the result of this will have significant impact. The term for the elected delegate will span four years, ringing in a potentially transformative period for the district’s political landscape.
The district has a unique election history, with the 2020 Presidential election taken by Joe Biden with a margin of 11.7% and the 2021 gubernatorial election won by Republican Glenn Youngkin by 2.8%. Given these figures, predicting a clear winner for the upcoming delegate race is tricky. This district isn’t particularly diverse – White voters make up 63.1%, followed by Black (19.6%) and Hispanic voters (10.2%).
Statistically, the electorate in Virginia’s 65th House of Delegates district is not heavily skewed towards either party. The changing political trends in recent years highlight the unpredictable nature of this upcoming race. Both candidates will be looking to make their mark and lead the district for the next four years.
Virginia House District 71
The 71st District in Virginia’s House of Delegates election is coming up on November 7th. With the current seat distribution of 48 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and 6 vacancies, this election can potentially sway the balance of power. The incumbent for this election is Republican Amanda Batten, who is again running for re-election. She faces Democratic opponent Jessica Anderson. The term length for this seat spans four years.
Historical election trends may give some insight into the potential outcome of this looming election. In the 2020 Presidential election, the district tipped in favor of Democratic candidate Joe Biden by a margin of 3.2%. However, in the more recent 2021 gubernatorial race, Republican Glenn Youngkin won at a margin of 7.5%. Due to these results and other factors, current assessments suggest a likely Republican hold on this district.
Demographics in the 71st House of Delegates district are mainly skewed towards the White demographic, constituting 70.6%. Other significant racial demographics include the Black community at 18.9%. Hispanics, Asians, and Native Americans make up the rest of the population percentage at 4.8%, 3.8%, and 2.0% respectively.
Virginia House District 82
The upcoming election in Virginia’s 82nd House of Delegates district on Nov 7th promises an intense competition. The current distribution in the House of Delegates shows a slim Republican majority with 48 Republicans and 46 Democrats, and 6 vacancies. For the past 4 years, the seat in the 82nd district has been held by Kim Taylor, a Republican who is running for re-election this year. Taylor faces a formidable challenge from Democrat Kimberly Adams.
Looking at historical results, the region oscillates in political leaning. In the 2020 Presidential Election, Democrat Joe Biden secured victory with a comfortable margin of 10.7%. More recently though, Republican Glenn Youngkin won the 2021 gubernatorial election by a narrower margin of 2.2%. Given these past results, this district’s legislative seat is considered a tossup.
Adding to this complex picture is the district’s demographic mixture. The district’s population is 45.8% White and 47.6% black, with smaller Hispanic, Asian, and Native American populations. The direction in which this distinct population will lean in the upcoming election is uncertain and will determine whether Republicans retain control or if Democrats will gain a seat.
Virginia House District 84
The upcoming election in Virginia’s 84th House of Delegates district offers an interesting study in local politics. With no incumbent in the running this year, the race is between Republican Mike Dillender and Democrat Nadarius Clark. The election is slated for November 7th and the winner will hold their seat for four years in a House that is currently comprised of 48 Republicans, 46 Democrats, with 6 vacancies.
Recent historical data presents a distinct blue tilt in this district. In the 2020 Presidential election, Democratic nominee Joe Biden clinched victory with a significant 16.4% margin. Furthermore, Democrat Terry McAuliffe also triumphed in the 2021 gubernatorial election albeit with a tighter margin of 2.6%. These past result suggest that the district leans Democratic.
Demographic details of the district highlight its diverse nature. The largest ethnic group is White people constituting 49.3% of the population. Black residents make up approximately 43.2% of the district’s population with Hispanic, Asian and Native American populations at 3.6%, 2.6% and 1.9% respectively.
Virginia House District 86
Virginia’s 86th House of Delegates district is gearing up for an election on November 7th. The current delegate, Republican A.C. Cordoza, is pursuing re-election. Already seated in a House of 48 Republicans and 46 Democrats with 6 vacancies, these elections happen every four years. Cordoza’s main opposition is Democrat Jarris Taylor Jr.
The 2020 Presidential winner here was Democrat Joe Biden, however, the margin was a narrow 3.2%. In an interesting turn of events, the district swung Republican in the 2021 gubernatorial race, favoring Glenn Youngkin by 8.9%. Predictions indicate that the 86th House of Delegates district is likely to remain Republican.
Demographically, the district is less diverse with a predominance of White constituents at 61.5%. The Black population amounts to 25.6%. Hispanic members account for 5.3% of the population, followed by Asians at 5.9%, and Native Americans at 2.6%.
Virginia House District 89
The upcoming election in Virginia’s 89th House of Delegates district is set to have significant political ramifications. With no incumbent running for re-election, Baxter Ennis is running for the Republican party, while Karen Jenkins represents the Democrats. The House of Delegates currently stands at 48 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and 6 vacancies, indicating the intense competition in this race. The election will take place on November 7th and the elected official will represent the district for a four year term.
Based on historical data, this race won’t be an easy one for any candidate. In the 2020 presidential race, Joe Biden, a Democrat, emerged victorious by a narrow margin of 2.7%. However, in the following year, the tide turned with Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, winning the gubernatorial race by a margin of 7.4%.
Observing demographic data for the 89th district, the population is mostly white, constituting 59%, followed by the black community representing 30.7%, and others, including Hispanics, Asians, and Native Americans making up the remainder.
Virginia House District 97
Virginia’s 97th House of Delegates district readies for an intense election. Voters head to the polls on November 7th to choose between the incumbent Republican Karen Greenhalgh and the Democrat Michael Feggans. The voting outcome will partially decide the balance of power in the House currently held by 48 Republicans and 46 Democrats, with 6 vacancies left open. These two candidates vie for the opportunity to serve a 4-year term.
This district’s election carries extra weight because of its historical fluctuation in party preference. Joe Biden, a Democrat, raked in victory in the 2020 Presidential election by a 12.4% margin in this district. Yet, in 2021, Republican Glenn Youngkin emerged triumphant, albeit by a smaller margin of 2.1%, in the gubernatorial race. The bouncing party preference categorizes this district as a genuine toss-up.
Shifting focus to the district’s demographics, it’s clear – this district is not very diverse. The majority racial demographic is White, accounting for 66.8% of the population, followed by Black at 20.3%. Hispanic residents comprise 7.3%, Asian residents 4.1%, and Native American 2.0%. Will these demographics sway the election results? The race between Karen Greenhalgh and Michael Feggans will divulge the answer soon.