Upcoming DDHQ Election Coverage

Over the next twenty days, three Congressional seats, a statehood referendum, and the UK Parliament are all up for grabs. Here’s what we have in the works for June.

Tuesday, June 6th

New Jersey- #NJGov

Both gubernatorial primaries look like runaway wins for their frontrunners: Lt. Gov Kim Guadagno is polling a wide lead on the Republican side, businessman Phil Murphy the same on the Democratic. Still, it’s the first of two gubernatorial primaries we’ll get this year. Polls close at 8pm EDT, and we anticipate 99% of the results will be counted by Midnight.

California- #CA34

The third Congressional seat to be filled this year, the district is overwhelmingly Democratic, and thanks to California’s top two primary system, both candidates are from the same party. State Assemblyman Jimmy Gomez is the expected winner, but attorney Robert Lee Ahn has put up a considerable fight- they earned 25% and 22% of the crowded first-round vote. Polls close at 11pm EDT, and results in L.A. County, even for a low-turnout race, take a long time to roll in. All precincts will be reported by 6-8am EDT…with mail-in ballots and provisionals taking an additional 1-2 weeks to be processed. We’ll likely have a call the night of.

Thursday, June 8th

United Kingdom- #GE2017

When Conservative leader Theresa May called for a general election, it looked like a smart, calculated move: the Conservatives were boasting twenty point leads in the early polls over Labour. But the last few weeks have seen that fortune erode to the point that YouGov’s model has them losing seats. We’ll have to see if the late polling that seems to be capturing a surge of Labour support from younger voters is real, or, like all too many surveys that rely upon a big youth vote, a mirage. Polls close across the UK at 5pm EDT, with the first results expected just forty-eight minutes after.

Saturday, June 10th

Texas- #sanantonio

The nation’s seventh largest city holds its runoff, and the DDHQ team will have returns next Saturday evening. Incumbent Mayor Ivy Taylor faces off against Councilman Ron Nirenberg. Mayor Taylor earned 42% of the first round vote, Nirenberg, 37%. Polls close at 8pm EDT.

Sunday, June 11th

Puerto Rico- #statehood

The Commonwealth of Puerto Rico had already held a referendum on the question of statehood in 2012, but its Governor-elect at the time deemed the results nebulous and the statehood movement went into hibernation for a while. The island’s new Governor is very strongly pro-statehood, and pushed for a new referendum with a clear, single question ballot option.

What would a statehood vote mean? To answer that, here’s DDHQ contributor Alexander Marrero-Laureano:

“The problem with this vote is that it is non-binding. So, chances are that Congress will just look the other way. People that are anti-statehood would then use the low-turnout (the PIP and PPD Parties are boycotting) as an argument that Puerto Ricans don’t really want statehood.

The current pro-statehood government, however, plans to use the results in order to launch what they call the ‘Tennessee Plan’. What this means is that once statehood wins, there would be elections to elect two Senators and five Representatives who would go to Congress demanding statehood for Puerto Rico.”
Polls close in Puerto Rico at 3pm EDT, but don’t expect a slew of results for some time: the Commonwealth will have a partial report sometime before 12 noon on June 12th, and a preliminary result by 3pm on June 14th.
Tuesday, June 13th
Virginia- #VAGov (primaries)
The next round of gubernatorial primaries come a week after the first, and are a bit more nebulous than New Jersey’s. While the Republican contest seems to be Ed Gillespie’s to lose, the Democratic side is a close battle between Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam and former Congressman Tom Perriello. Polls close at 7pm EDT, and we expect initial results within about five minutes from several large counties. Northern Virginia, a critical battleground on the Democratic side, will take it’s sweet time: during the Presidential election last year, Fairfax County was one of the last areas to report.
Tuesday, June 20th
Georgia- #GA06 runoff
South Carolina- #SC05 general
Two Congressional specials in one night! South Carolina’s race is the most overlooked contest this cycle, and for understandable reasons: the district voted for President Donald Trump by twenty points and had been redrawn after the 2010 census to make it more Republican. Even still, the home to fictitious Congressman-turned-fictitious President Frank Underwood was represented by Democrats from Reconstruction until 2010. Polling on behalf of Democratic candidate Archie Parnell has him down by ten.
Polls close at 7pm EDT and results will trickle in almost immediately after, not the case for our next contest for this evening, and the belle of the ball for political nerds this season, Georgia’s Sixth District runoff.
Democrat Jon Ossoff is polling a narrow edge over Republican Karen Handel, which should surprise nobody who watched the results back in April. Early voting this round features a helluva lot more Republicans turning out, also surprising nobody who watched the first round: with Republican options narrowed down from a dozen choices to one, they know who they’re picking. The district has been Republican for a generation, but voted only narrowly for President Trump. Polls close at the same time as South Carolina, 7pm EDT- but don’t expect results for at least a half-hour, as early ballots are calculated in Cobb, DeKalb, and Fulton.