Quick Update on Montana Early Voting

Another day, another batch counted. As we mentioned in our piece yesterday, we are mostly using early voting data to estimate a final vote tally. Most of Montanans vote early, and they tend to return the ballots mailed at a good clip.

As of 5/11/2017:

Total absentees cast: 160,148 out of  348,000 mailed (46.02% returned)

Absentees returned as a percentage of 2014 returned: 71% 2016 returned: 47%

Return rates of ten largest counties (vote for 2016 President, 2016 Governor)

Yellowstone- 51.18% returned (voted for Trump by 27%, Gianforte by 1%)

Gallatin- 40.55% returned (voted for Clinton by 1%, Bullock by 15%)

Missoula 38.8% returned (voted for Clinton by 16%, Bullock by 34%)

Cascade 46.89% returned (voted for Trump by 22%, Bullock by 10%)

Lewis & Clark 52.60% returned (voted for Trump by 7%, Bullock by 23%)

Flathead 34.76% returned (voted for Trump by 36%, Gianforte by 15%)

Ravalli 55.15% returned (voted for Trump by 38%, Gianforte by 14%)

Silver Bow 47.14% returned (voted for Clinton by 14%, Bullock by 44%)

Lake 54.46% returned (voted for Trump by 21%, Bullock by 1%)

Park 49.95% returned (voted for Trump by 15%, Bullock by 10%)

Overall, breaking returned absentee ballots into Trump/Clinton and Gianforte/Bullock counties:

Trump counties have cast 115,401 votes, Clinton 44,747

Gianforte counties have cast 79,405 votes, Bullock 80,743