Early voting is underway in Nebraska for the Omaha Mayoral election, and we’ll track it along with the final results on Tuesday. We at the Desk insist that early voting data, while a useful bit of information, isn’t predictive of final outcomes. A party could push hard to turn its voters out early, cannibalizing their election day vote, and come up short. It’s a fascinating thing to watch because of these early/election day differences. Over time, watching these bits of data could lead to better election night modeling.
Per the election office, 23,976 ballots were mailed out as of Friday. Over forty seven hundred voters had cast ballots as of Friday (the last date available from the Douglas County Election Commission), and the Democrats have returned more ballots so far:
These figures include early walk-in and mail-in votes. Next update will come this evening.
It’s hard to read into the current data beyond “the Party with more registered voters and a stronger inclination to vote early is doing so”, but I’m sure as the data builds over the week, it will be hard for some to resist reading the tea leaves. We’ll update the stats every day that the county updates until election day. Incumbent Mayor Jean Stothert, a Republican, faces off against Democrat Heath Mello next Tuesday (the race is officially nonpartisan, but the party affiliation of each is obvious).
Note- we erronously reported only 4/28 tallies instead of the cumulative totals. They have been corrected.