A competitive race begets more competitive races. That is what happened in 2018 when Robert "Beto" O’Rourke lost the 2018 Senate race to Ted Cruz by under 3%. Democrats flipped two Congressional districts, two State Senate districts, 12 State Representative districts, and gave incumbent Republicans a scare in numerous others. Biden is presently polling competitively with Trump … [Read more...] about Competitive Congressional Races in the Lone Star State (3/3)
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Competitive Congressional Races in the Lone Star State (2/3)
Updates to Part 1: We at DDHQ yesterday moved TX-06 to Likely R, and FiveThirtyEight moved TX-24 to Toss-Up. The NRCC announced they would spend an additional 772K on ads in TX-24. Robert "Beto" O’Rourke's 2018 political coalition shattered the Texas Republican Gerrymander. Districts designed to safely reelect incumbent Republicans became marginal races. … [Read more...] about Competitive Congressional Races in the Lone Star State (2/3)
Competitive Congressional Races in the Lone Star State (1/3)
Everything is bigger in Texas, including the list of battleground Congressional districts. Both parties are contesting seats in the Lone Star state, with varying degrees of success. Texas’s congressional map was not designed to be this competitive – only one seat of 36 was marginal in 2012. The Republican-controlled State Legislature carved up Democratic communities and paired … [Read more...] about Competitive Congressional Races in the Lone Star State (1/3)
Competitive Seats: California 25
Democratic insiders did not expect to lose the 2020 special election for California’s 25th district. Since 2016, the presidential topline, voter registration statistics, and the demographic makeup of CA-25’s voter pool increasingly favor the Democratic party. Republican Mike Garcia navigated his way to a special election victory, but he faces significant obstacles to winning a … [Read more...] about Competitive Seats: California 25
Swing Seats: Arizona 6
Arizona is a frontline battleground state at every level of government. Prognosticators agree that Biden and Trump are in a close race for Arizona’s eleven electoral votes, albeit one with a consistent Biden lead in polling. We perceive Arizona’s Senate race as less competitive than the presidential topline, but this is because Democratic nominee Mark Kelly pushed the seat … [Read more...] about Swing Seats: Arizona 6