Four months out, both party primaries in the Pennsylvania Senate race are wide open, and the election to replace retiring incumbent Pat Toomey is drawing eyeballs from across the nation. Republican Primary Dr. Mehmet Oz made a big splash when he jumped into the GOP pool last month, but there’s no indication yet that he’s lapping the competition. A few internal polls … [Read more...] about Candidates Scramble for Support in Wide-Open PA Senate Contest
I wanted to write something about the prospects of the Republican and Democratic Parties, at least in the immediate future, but on a national scale, I am throwing my hands in the air here. President Trump lost re-election with the same electorate that delivered more state legislative seats and Congressional seats than the midterm. President Trump would lose the popular vote by … [Read more...] about Reading The Electoral Signs
Ah, Blue Texas, the dream of so many, you may be here. Sunday saw two polls - a University of Texas at Tyler poll showing Biden +5 and a CBS/YouGov showing Trump +1 - both showing Democrats competitive in the Lone Star State, and reignited the 18 month long debate about whether the Biden campaign should just throw everything at the core map or expand into Texas, Georgia, Iowa, … [Read more...] about Turning Texas Blue, It’s Not Just About Biden, The Senate, Or Even The House. State Legislatures Are Important Too.
UPDATE: The post below has been updated to reflect the Democratic flip of CA-21 and the results of the Mississippi special election. It is now up-to-date as of November 29th. Introduction The following document presents preliminary analysis of the performance of the Øptimus House and Senate models, as well as how they compare to other forecasting models and ratings. Overall, … [Read more...] about 2018 Midterm Forecasting model analysis- How well did we do?
Now that Election Day is “over” (minus California and a few close races), we have a preliminary look at how our legislative model has performed. The following analysis only includes races that have been called, so it will change over the next few days. This was our first dive into public forecasting- and we’re very pleased with how it’s turned out. The House model pretty … [Read more...] about Øptimus Election Modeling Preliminary Recap