The strength of education polarization broke historical precedent in 2022 US House races, overpowering “down-ballot lag,” which occurs when changes in partisan patterns appear first at the presidential level, to drive continued realignment during this midterm cycle. Education polarization drove rapid and notable realignment between the 2012 and 2020 presidential elections, and … [Read more...] about Roe Overturn Led to Historic Realignment in 2022 Midterms
Roe v. Wade
Through the majority of the 2022 midterm election cycle, the Supreme Court's decision in Dobbs v. Jackson (overturning the longstanding precedent of Roe v. Wade) has dominated headlines and analysis. Although Democrats enjoyed a strong late summer bump, ostensibly fueled by the decision, GOP candidates have substantially gained in polling completed throughout October, in the … [Read more...] about How Will the Death of Roe Affect Partisan Realignment in the 2022 Midterms?
Just six months ago, national Republicans were in a tremendous position to achieve robust gains in the House and the Senate in this upcoming election cycle. First and foremost, many Republicans considered it all but certain that they would flip the House and Senate in 2022, given their comfortable lead in generic ballot polling and President Joe Biden's underwater approval … [Read more...] about Will the 2022 Midterms Really Be a Failure for the GOP?
There’s no debate about whether or not the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade has motivated Democratic voters. Based on the evidence of four special elections since June 23rd, it’s clear it has. The bigger question is, will it be enough to offset President Joe Biden's poor approval ratings and mute the expected red wave come November? To answer that question, we … [Read more...] about Roe Overturn Fuels Democrat Success in Special Elections, but Don’t Read Too Much Into It for November
What a difference a week makes. Over just five days, we experienced two monumental moments in our political history. First on Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the landmark 1973 Roe decision that ensured a right to an abortion. Then on Tuesday, Trump White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson delivered devastating personal testimony to the January 6th Committee. Of … [Read more...] about Will Abortion Decision and January 6th Hearings Change the 2022 Midterm Landscape?