Wave elections are remembered for the sheer number of seats flipped and of course the upsets, but the volume of close contests in them can be useful when looking ahead to the next cycle. Forty-five House seats were decided by margins of five or less, almost all of them held by Republicans. Republicans held onto twenty-four of them and lost twenty and control of the House … [Read more...] about Forty-five House Seats Decided by Five Points or Less
Midterms
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 29, 2018
For the second straight week, the model is stable in the House and moves slightly towards Republicans in the Senate. The national environment is also stable, sitting at D+7.9 compared to D+7.8 last week. With just 8 days left until Election Day, we're predicting a strong possibility of split chamber control, with Democrats retaking the House but unable to retake the Senate. … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 29, 2018