Jon Prevo is tracking candidate filings for Decision Desk HQ in the run up to 2020. He took a quick glance at the data for us this week. In order to run for re-election, Congressional incumbents must file a few forms with the Federal Election Commission. The form filings this map shows are sitting incumbents of the 116th Congress as of March 6th who have filed FEC F2 forms. … [Read more...] about Over Three-Quarters of House Members Have Filed for Re-Election
When we introduced the 2018 Election Forecasting Simulator yesterday, we included several different scenarios to play around with. Today we're taking a look at one in particular, which maximizes the expected number of Democratic victories in the House. How many seats did they leave on the table? As it turns out, not all that many. Democrats were able to pick up 40 seats in … [Read more...] about What was the Democratic ceiling in the House?
UPDATE: The post below has been updated to reflect the Democratic flip of CA-21 and the results of the Mississippi special election. It is now up-to-date as of November 29th. Introduction The following document presents preliminary analysis of the performance of the Øptimus House and Senate models, as well as how they compare to other forecasting models and ratings. Overall, … [Read more...] about 2018 Midterm Forecasting model analysis- How well did we do?
Now that Election Day is “over” (minus California and a few close races), we have a preliminary look at how our legislative model has performed. The following analysis only includes races that have been called, so it will change over the next few days. This was our first dive into public forecasting- and we’re very pleased with how it’s turned out. The House model pretty … [Read more...] about Øptimus Election Modeling Preliminary Recap
On the eve of Election Day, there is a high likelihood of split chamber control of Congress once the dust settles. In the past week, the national environment shifted from D+7.9 to D+7.1 while presidential approval dipped to a net negative 14 points. It is a longshot for Republicans to keep the House, though Democrats do have a very narrow path to taking the Senate. Details … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update November 5, 2018