The strength of education polarization broke historical precedent in 2022 US House races, overpowering “down-ballot lag,” which occurs when changes in partisan patterns appear first at the presidential level, to drive continued realignment during this midterm cycle. Education polarization drove rapid and notable realignment between the 2012 and 2020 presidential elections, and … [Read more...] about Roe Overturn Led to Historic Realignment in 2022 Midterms
Through the majority of the 2022 midterm election cycle, the Supreme Court's decision in Dobbs v. Jackson (overturning the longstanding precedent of Roe v. Wade) has dominated headlines and analysis. Although Democrats enjoyed a strong late summer bump, ostensibly fueled by the decision, GOP candidates have substantially gained in polling completed throughout October, in the … [Read more...] about How Will the Death of Roe Affect Partisan Realignment in the 2022 Midterms?
After much talk of Joe Biden's campaign being unable to get much traction with Hispanic voters - and consequently polls showing him doing somewhere between mildly and much worse with Hispanics than Hillary Clinton did - Biden seems to have figured out his Hispanic problems, and he's done so in a big way. Per three recent National polls - conducted by Optimus, YouGov, and the … [Read more...] about Joe Biden’s Increasing Support From Hispanic Voters