The 2020 Congressional Election did not go the way Democrats hoped. National Democrats expected to gain seats, but results so far are a net loss. The results vindicated the National Republican Congressional Committee who expected to narrow the Democratic majority by picking off vulnerable Congressional Democrats and holding the line in Republican seats across the country. Over … [Read more...] about Competitive Congressional Races: What Happened?
With 9 weeks to go until Election Day, our model displays a continuing shift towards Democratic chances in the House while the Senate moves more modestly towards Democrats as well. The big takeaway this week is that 4 House races (WA08, KS03, MN03, OH12) moved 3% or more away from the GOP as Democratic IE spending started pouring in. The generic ballot national environment … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 3, 2018
As we approach the 2-month mark until Election Day 2018, the Øptimus Model remains steady at the aggregate levels for both the House and Senate. Republicans remain the strong favorites to retain control of the Senate, while Democrats are favored to take the House. With 7 Senate races in toss-up or lean territory, and the House even less solidified, the opportunity for … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update August 27, 2018
It's 79 days til election day and here is your Øptimus legislative model update. With less than 80 days left to go until Election Day, the general setup for the House and Senate continues to take form, with the House increasingly likely to change hands while the Senate remains favorable for Republicans. While there is still time left for this dynamic to significantly change, … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update August 20, 2018
It's 83 days til election day and here is your Øptimus legislative model update. This weeks model incorporates primary results from KS, MI, MO and WA. Beyond these and the usual flow of individual race polling, the biggest change came from the national generic ballot environment, which shifted towards Republicans by 1.9 points, from D+6.9 to D+5. Net presidential approval … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update August 14, 2018