Today, guest contributor Jon Prevo, working with contributor Noah Rudnick, brings you the latest information on incumbents that have filed for re-election in Congress. To give some interactivity to the House 2020 Contest, I've included the above data representation vis-à-vis Tableau that shows all the 116th Congress members who have filed their FEC F2 forms, whether … [Read more...] about Interactive: See which House Incumbents Have (or Haven’t) Already Filed for Re-Election in 2020
2020
A Crowded Field Meets a Front Loaded Primary
In a field as incredibly crowded as the one Democrats must pick from in less than a year, coming in third or fourth in Iowa, with the money that is surely going to be raised over the next few months, doesn't seem to carry as much weight as it may have in previous elections. A candidate who proves a dud in Iowa may do well in New Hampshire, or have a different strategy and kick … [Read more...] about A Crowded Field Meets a Front Loaded Primary
Why Donald Trump Is Heading To Western Michigan Next Week (It’s Not About His Base)
President Donald Trump carried Michigan by less than 12,000 votes in 2016, and did so mainly on a massive shift among whites without a college degree. His performance in suburban areas, particularly those populated mostly by whites with a college degree, dipped notably from Mitt Romney's, and this held true throughout the state. He also benefited from a drop in participation … [Read more...] about Why Donald Trump Is Heading To Western Michigan Next Week (It’s Not About His Base)
Noah Rudnick’s Hot Seat: NY-03
New York’s Third Congressional District is a surprisingly competitive seat: Democratic Presidential candidates consistently win it by small margins and down ballot contests can get close even with token opposition. Two-term incumbent Tom Suozzi faces broadside attacks and scandals from home, granting an opening for either a Republican or progressive insurgent to hammer … [Read more...] about Noah Rudnick’s Hot Seat: NY-03
Net Favorabilty Changes in Presidential Election Cycles
I saw a conversation back and forth earlier this morning on the negative favorability ratings for nearly every Democratic nominee. A tweet by CNN contributor Harry Enten caught my eye: YouGov's latest poll: Dems lead the generic prez ballot by 49% to 40% over Trump, but none of the candidates (save Biden) have a positive net favorable score. (Schultz has by far the worst.) … [Read more...] about Net Favorabilty Changes in Presidential Election Cycles