|Greg Gianforte (Republican)||50.2%||189,473|
|Rob Quist (Democratic)||44.1%||166,483|
|Mark Wicks (Libertarian)||5.7%||21,509|
With Missoula coming in, its not enough for Quist to pull ahead. Gianforte wins.
Things aren't getting better for Quist. With almost 250K votes in, Gianforte has cleared 50% and leads by 6%. Likely not enough of Missoula to save Quist.
Flathead County (normally a mildly GOP leaning county) is the first county where Gianforte is running behind his Governor's numbers last year.
Just over an hour in and 200K votes have been cast. Very impressive speed, Montana. Gianforte's situation continues to look good, but much of the election day votes is still out.
Our map is filling in nicely. Gianforte is running 4-5% ahead of his numbers in the Governor's race last year.
In Gallatin County, where Gianforte had his meltdown last night, Quist won the early vote 18K to 14K.
This is something of a swing county, as HRC flipped it from Romney last year.
Looking at some early voting from counties of interest:
Yellewstone (slighty R leaning): 56/37 Gianforte
Lewis and Clark (normally moderately blue): 52/42 Quist
With over 100K votes in, Quist leads 48/46.
Early results from Missoula County (absentee) have Quist up 19K to 10K for Gianforte.
Polls in Montana have now closed.
With polls closing in a 40 minutes to go, here's a picture of what our format will look like.
Map 1 is the traditional map.
Map 1a is the counties weighted for population.
Map 2 compares the results to last year's Governor's race, where Gov. Bullock (D) beat Gianforte 50/46.
Map 3 compares the results to last year's House race, where current Interior Secretary Zinke won by about 15%.
All visual and election related data in this post before 10pm EDT is for test purposes.
Tonight, we visit Montana as voters decide whether to fill the at-large vacancy with Democratic candidate Rob Quist or Republican Greg Gianforte. Most of the ballots have already been cast: a majority of Montana voters opt to vote via mail-in. This is important, given the developments in the last 24 hours. The Republican, Greg Gianforte, has been charged with assaulting a reporter with The Guardian, and the three largest newspapers in the state have rescinded their endorsements of him. With the state’s Republican lean, he may still win, considering the number of votes already in the bank (268,498 to be exact).
We will be updating this blog post with comparative displays and the latest updates from the collection team, and unlike every other outlet, we are covering the returns via a live broadcast starting at 10pm EDT. Director Brandon Finnigan will be hosting BuzzFeedNews’ live video feed, which you can watch here. Mr. Finnigan will be breaking down the returns with BF’s Katherine Miller, and will be joined by members of their team reporting from the ground and in studio.
Tonight, Miles Coleman will be live blogging returns here and updating our comparison charts. The two maps on top are the vote by county color coded by the winner and margin, the bottom two represent the Republican/Democratic lean of every county tonight compared to the 2016 Gubernatorial contest (which Gianforte lost narrowly) and the 2016 Congressional contest (which Zinke won handily). The generated maps run just behind our latest vote totals at the top. Refresh for latest results.