Decision Desk HQ

Elections Returns, Analysis and Projections

  • Home
  • Sign Up
  • 2018 U.S. Election Forecasting
  • 2018 U.S. ELECTION RESULTS
  • DDHQ Store

Presenting the 2018 Øptimus Gubernatorial (Polling) Model

November 2, 2018 at 2:27 pm ∙ Governor, Predictions ∙ Scott Tranter

As we head into the final weekend before Election Day, we’re excited to reveal our gubernatorial probabilities. While we did not apply our House and Senate methodology to produce a full gubernatorial model, we wanted to release our take on where these races stood. We settled on a polling model, similar to what we use to input polling into our House and Senate models. Think of it as a “polls-only” model.

Here’s how it works: we collected all available polling data since Labor Day for each of the 34 governors’ races with polling in this time period (Nebraska and Wyoming are the two exceptions; they are both widely considered Safe GOP). We then run these polls through a model that uses historical polling probabilities to convert raw polling results into accurate probabilities of victory based on those results (e.g If your polling average is x and this is based on y number of polls with a margin of error of z, you win alpha percent of the time).

There are no structural, campaign finance, political environment, or candidate trait variables here; it is a probabilistic aggregation of available polling.

The table below shows where these races stand based on public polling, from most Democratic to most Republican. We incorporated all polling we could find through November 1st.

 

 

Gubernatorial, Predictions

  • Share:

Sign Up for a Free Account

Get a weekly newsletter and access to the DDHQ & 0ptimus Forecasting Model

  • Strength indicator

Keep up with the latest:

  • Like DecisionDeskHQ
  • Follow @decisiondeskhq
  • Follow @0ptimusPredicts

Subscribe to the Forecasting Newsletter and Sign Up for an Øptimus Modeling Account

  • Strength indicator
  • About
  • Contact Us
  • Privacy Policy
  • Like DecisionDeskHQ
  • Follow @decisiondeskhq
  • Follow @0ptimusPredicts

© 2019 Øptimus Consulting, LLC. and Decision Desk HQ ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

This site uses cookies and external scripts to improve your experience.

My settings
Google Analytics

Privacy Settings

This site uses cookies and external scripts to improve your experience. Which cookies and scripts are used and how they impact your visit is specified on the left. You may change your settings at any time. Your choices will not impact your visit.

NOTE: These settings will only apply to the browser and device you are currently using.

Google Analytics

Save my settings