With 50 days left until Election Day, our model moves slightly towards Republicans this week in the aggregate. The generic ballot national environment continued to go up for Democrats, now sitting at D+9.3, but the past week featured nearly 70 individual district polling that was often good news for Republicans. Republicans’ chances to keep the House rebounded slightly over 20%, while they made inroads in Lean D Senate seats.
Details about the modeling can be found here and sign-up is free.
GOP chances of retaining the House: 21% (+5.2%) with a mean prediction of 211 GOP Seats (218 for control).
GOP chances of retaining the Senate: 84.7% (+0%) with a mean seat prediction of a 51-49 GOP majority.