With less than 2 months until Election Day, our model continues to shift towards Democratic control in the House while holding steady on Republican chances in the Senate. The generic ballot national environment generates most of the aggregate shift this week, with polling coming into play in individual seats. Overall, Republicans remain strong favorites to retain control of the Senate, while their chances to keep the House hover slightly over 20%.
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GOP chances of retaining the House: 21.2% (-2.4%) with a mean prediction of 211 GOP Seats (218 for control).
GOP chances of retaining the Senate: 82.2% (-0.4%) with a mean seat prediction of a 51-49 GOP majority.
Biggest Senate movers this week are Nebraska and North Dakota.