After the big movement in the model at the end of last week due to the record-breaking fundraising quarter by Democrats, the model settles down this week. The national environment continues to creep back up for Democrats, now sitting at D+7.8, though Trump’s approval rating has curiously increased at the same time, now sitting at only a net -7%. With two weeks left until Election Day, the conventional wisdom points to a Democratic House and a Republican Senate, with time left for movement in certain key Senate seats.
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GOP chances of retaining the House: 5.6% (-0.8% since the 10/18 update) with a mean prediction of 204 GOP Seats (218 for control).
GOP chances of retaining the Senate: 87.6% (+0.8% since the 10/18 update) with a mean seat prediction of 52-48 GOP majority.