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Øptimus Legislative Model: Update November 5, 2018

November 5, 2018 by Scott Tranter

On the eve of Election Day, there is a high likelihood of split chamber control of Congress once the dust settles. In the past week, the national environment shifted from D+7.9 to D+7.1 while presidential approval dipped to a net negative 14 points. It is a longshot for Republicans to keep the House, though Democrats do have a very narrow path to taking the Senate.

Details about the modeling can be found here and sign-up is free. Our final update will be up on the website only at noon on Election Day.

GOP chances of retaining the House: 4.4% (-1.1 since the 11/02 update) with a mean prediction of 202 GOP Seats (218 for control).

GOP chances of retaining the Senate: 92% (-1.1% since the 11/02 update) with a mean seat prediction of 52-48 GOP majority.

Biggest House movers are FL-25, GA-06, IL-14, MI-08, NY-24, WA-08.

Biggest Senate movers are Florida and New Jersey.

Filed Under: House, Predictions, Senate Tagged With: House, Predictions, Senate

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