As it was at the beginning of the week, the model is stable in the House and moved slightly towards Republicans in the Senate since Monday. The national environment shifted from D+7.9 compared to D+7. With just 8 days left until Election Day, we’re predicting a strong possibility of split chamber control, with Democrats retaking the House but unable to retake the Senate. However, both parties do have (slim) paths to control of either chamber.
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GOP chances of retaining the House: 5.5% (unchanged since the 10/29 update) with a mean prediction of 203 GOP Seats (218 for control).
GOP chances of retaining the Senate: 93.1% (+1.9% since the 10/29 update) with a mean seat prediction of 52-48 GOP majority.