It’s 83 days til election day and here is your Øptimus legislative model update.
This weeks model incorporates primary results from KS, MI, MO and WA. Beyond these and the usual flow of individual race polling, the biggest change came from the national generic ballot environment, which shifted towards Republicans by 1.9 points, from D+6.9 to D+5. Net presidential approval increased slightly to -13 from -15 last week. Fourteen new House district polls were added across 9 different races. On the Senate side, 8 new polls were added across ME, MI, MN, MS, and VA.
The next few weeks will feature the bulk of all remaining primaries, setting us up for the 2018 field to be finalized shortly. After that point, the bulk of probability changes will come from new polling, changes in the national environment/presidential approval, and new FEC reports (with October quarterlies looming large).
Details about modeling can be found here and sign-up is free.
GOP chances of retaining the House: 32.9% (+3.4%) with a mean prediction of 214 GOP House seats (218 for control)
GOP Chances of retaining Senate: 89.1% (+3.9%) with a mean seat prediction of 52 GOP Senate seats
Biggest House movers this week are in NV-03 and NH-01 (details in links).
Biggest Senate movers this week are Missouri, Mississippi, Arizona, Nevada and Maine (details in links).