Decision Desk HQ sponsored an Opinion Savvy poll of likely voters in Alabama for the upcoming Senate special election’s Republican primary runoff. Voters were contacted by landline (IVR) and cell phone (push notification and web-based survey), and the sample was weighted for age, race, gender and region. A total of 494 respondents participated, and the margin of error is +/- 4.4%.
Former Alabama Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore is enjoying an eighteen point lead over incumbent Senator Luther Strange, 50.3% to 32.2%. Earlier this week, JMC Analytics surveyed the contest and found a nearly identical lead for Moore, 51% over Strange’s 32%. Strange wins non-evangelicals (48.2% to 26%), older Millennials and younger Gen Xers (32.6% to 29.9%), somewhat liberal (32.1% to 30.5%) and very liberal voters (20.8% to 8.2%), and voters in the Mobile area (46.8% to 42.3%).
Moore wins everyone else. He dominates every other age bracket, leads Strange among evangelicals by almost thirty points (57.5% to 27.9%) and leads among very conservative voters by a similar margin (61.6% to 29.2%). Regionally, he is the solid favorite in Huntsville (54.2% to 29.3%), Montgomery (57.4% to 21.7%), and leads in Strange’s home metro region of Birmingham by double digits (46.3% to 35%).
Among likely Republican voters, President Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at 83.4%, with just 14% disapproving. The President endorsed the Senator just before the first primary round, but Strange only leads among voters who disapprove. Moore beats Strange by twenty-five points (56.4% to 31.3%) among the voters who strongly approve, and almost eleven points (49.2% to 38.4%) among the voters who somewhat approve.
The candidates are far apart on favorability. Senator Strange is underwater, with 39.9% viewing him favorably and 45.9% unfavorably. He’s above water among evangelicals and very conservative voters (groups he nevertheless loses in the horse race) and residents of Mobile, the only region where he leads Moore. Meanwhile, a majority of Republican voters, 54.3%, view Moore favorably, while barely a third, 33.5%, view him unfavorably. He’s markedly underwater among only three groups: moderates, liberals, and non-evangelicals. African-Americans and 30-44-year olds barely disapprove.
We are just under five weeks away from the runoff, and Moore is clearly in the driver’s seat. Senator Strange has a massive fundraising edge, but he will need to improve his image- and bring down Moore’s- to overcome his current deficit.
For full crosstabs, click here.