DDHQ 2018 House Updates- October 6, 2018

Welcome to our daily DDHQ House Elections Updates. I’m your host, G. Elliott Morris. Questions, comments, concerns? Feel free to pass along via email or twitter. There are 396 days until the 2018 midterm elections. Democrats are up in the generic ballot by 8.2% and we rate 196 seats as Safe, Likely or Lean Democratic, 12 as Tossup, and 227 as Safe, Likely, or Lean Republican. Check our full U.S. House forecast here and read our full list of ratings here


Here’s what happened in elections to the U.S. House on Thursday, October 5 and Friday, October 6, 2017.


PA-18: The torrent of news in this district continues. Now, the scandal-shrouded GOP Rep. Tim Murphy says he’s resigning his seat effective October 21. We have an extensive discussion of the dynamics at play in the district here, and RRH elections has a good explanation of the special election process here.


NH-01: A surprise announcement rang out into the world Friday morning as Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter announced that she’s not running for reelection in 2018. NH-01 is an infamous tossup district, changing hands in 2006, 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016. We can now add 2018 to that list. While the district is tough to handicap this early, we know enough to say it’s a Tossup for now. There are currently three Republicans running for their party’s nomination as well as two third-party candidates contesting the seat


TX-26: A Democrat has announced his candidacy for this Safe Republican district. Will Fisher is the lucky man looking to unseat Rep. Michael C. Burgess Notably, TX-26 hasn’t voted Democratic since 1984 and has gotten redder in recent cycles.


Want these updates in your inbox each day? Subscribe to my newsletter — which includes other weekly political and polling analyses — via my blog or follow me on Twitter for even more discussion.