DDHQ 2018 House Updates – October 26, 2017

Welcome to our daily DDHQ House Elections Updates. I’m your host, G. Elliott Morris. Questions, comments, concerns? Feel free to pass along via email or twitter. There are 377 days until the 2018 midterm elections. Democrats are up in the generic ballot by 6.5% and we rate 195 seats as Safe, Likely or Lean Democratic, 13 as Tossup, and 227 as Safe, Likely, or Lean Republican. Check our full U.S. House forecast here and read our full list of ratings here. Sign up here to get these updates via email.

Here’s what happened in elections to the U.S. House earlier this week.


At Home

AZ-02: U.S. Senator from AZ Jeff Flake announced yesterday that he would not seek reelection, prompting immediate speculation among political pundits and prognosticators as to who will replace him. While Flake’s announcement is probably a net positive for Republicans in the race for the junior Senate seat — the establishment will likely pick a candidate that would be stronger than Flake, who is very unpopular in his state — it’s unclear what effect this will have on some down-ballot races. According to a combination of our 2018 election forecast and polling in the district, AZ-02 is the most likely Democratic pickup in the state. This could be worrying to the district’s representative, Rep. Martha McSally (R). She has been raking in the fundraising dollars to defend herself in what appears to be a coming blue cycle. McSally’s haul of cash overshadows her closest opponent, former AZ-01 Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, by nearly $2.5 million. Of course, a statewide race brings its own perils, but it could be fruitful. McSally is ready for a fight in AZ-02… but will she need the cash there, or in a Senate bid? Some rumors say the latter. Decision Desk HQ currently rates AZ-02 as Lean Republican.

NH-01: A Marine veteran is the latest Democrat to announce her candidacy to run in this tossup district, left open by retiring Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D). Maura Sullivan, a former Obama administration official, became the third Democratic contender here when she announced her bid on Monday. Sullivan joins former attorney for Stafford county Lincoln Soldati and Rochester City Attorney Terence O’Rourke, who — (while it’s still way too early to really know who’s ahead) may provide some substantial competition. Democratic activists have also been trying to recruit veterans as candidates for office; it often provides a nice boost to a candidate to be able to put a picture of themselves in uniform on their campaign website. New Hampshire’s first congressional district is considered one of the most “swingy” districts in the country and has changed parties every election since 2008. There are three Republicans, one Libertarian, and one Independent candidate also competing for this seat. NH-01 voted for Donald Trump by a 1.6% margin.



Data Roundup

President Trump job approval polling

  • Trump’s job approval in my average is still hovering around 38-39%.

2018 House Midterms

According to the latest House forecast data

  • Democrats are up 6.5% in generic ballot polls, and 8.4% in our estimates of the election day two-party vote.
  • They have about a 46% shot at winning a House majority and a 15% chance of winning more than 250 seats.

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