DDHQ 2018 House Updates – September 6, 2017

Welcome to our daily DDHQ House Elections Updates. I’m your host, G. Elliott Morris. Questions, comments, concerns? Feel free to pass along via email or twitter. There are 426 days until the 2018 midterm elections. Democrats are up in the generic ballot by 8% and we rate 196 seats as Safe, Likely or Lean Democratic. Check our full U.S. House forecast here and read our full list of ratings here. 


Here’s what happened in elections to the U.S. House yesterday, September 5th 2017.


KS-02: Another Republican joins an already crowded open election

Former state secretary of commerce Antonio Soave says he is probably running for this open seat, scheduling an event to announce his decision on September 14. If he enters the race for the seat, he will be the fifth Republican to declare his candidacy. The seat’s previous holder, Rep. Lynn Jenkins (R), beat her opponent 65%-3%5 in in 2016. Trump did slightly worse there, winning by just 20 points. DDHQ rates the seat as Likely Republican.

ME-01: Mark Holbrook is back

Republican Mark Holbrook is set on challenging Democratic U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree in 2018..again. Holbrook lost to Pingree last year 58% – 42%. The district voted for Clinton by the same margin, affirming our choice to rate the seat as Safe Democratic. Holbrook had $10k on hand as of June 30. Pingree has $550,000 to spend. If things heat up in ME-02, where a Democratic battle is unfolding to unseat Rep. Bruce Poliquin (New England’s sole Republican Congressman), expect ME-01 to fall off the parties’ radars.

TX-23: Gallego won’t challenge Rep. WIll Hurd (R)

Former Congressman Pete. Gallego says he won’t contest the seat in the 2018 cycle, a disappointment for Democrats. Gallego lost two razor-thin elections to Hurd in 2014 and 2016, and the seat is expected to be a close one next year by most major handicappers (DDHQ rates the seat as Tossup). Hurd has tried to place himself in a group of elected Republican officials that is anti-Trump, but only to an extent. If demographic trends pay dividends to Democrats next year, he may fall. But he’s probably feeling pretty good today.

PA-11: Lou Barletta’s first successor

Former Pennsylvania Secretary of the Department of Revenue Dan Meuser has become the first Republican to enter the race to replace Rep. Lou Barletta (R), who is vacating his seat in a not-so-long-shot run for U.S. Senate. We talked more in-depth about PA-11 last week when Rep. Barletta decided to officially launch his Senate bid.

Other buzz:


John Kasich, John McCain, and Arnold Schwarzenegger call for fair redistricting practices and an end to gerrymandering, on both sides.

  • The House will vote on a relief bill for those affected by hurricane Harvey sometime this week, and though it will likely pass largely uncontested, it is unclear what political consequences will be posed by the vote.
  • There looks to be some brewing Republican infighting over DACA. These sorts of social/cultural policy fights have been the focal point of those observing the growing rift between Trump’s White House and loyal Congressional followers, and the GOP of 2015.