DDHQ 2018 House Updates – September 29, 2017

Welcome to our daily DDHQ House Elections Updates. I’m your host, G. Elliott Morris. Questions, comments, concerns? Feel free to pass along via email or twitter. There are 403 days until the 2018 midterm elections. Democrats are up in the generic ballot by 7.6% and we rate 196 seats as Safe, Likely or Lean Democratic, 12 as Tossup, and 227 as Safe, Likely, or Lean Republican. Check our full U.S. House forecast here and read our full list of ratings here

Here’s what happened in elections to the U.S. House on Thursday September 28, 2017.

At Home


AZ-09: Democratic Rep. Krysten Sinema has announced that she’ll challenge Sen. Jeff Flake (R) in next year’s midterm election to his seat. Rep. Sinema is a huge get for Arizona Democrats, and her strong candidacy has added  to already existing widespread speculation on Flake’s safety in the Senate. Situated in the heart of Phoenix, Arizona’s ninth district is a pretty blue district. It voted for Hillary Clinton over Trump by a 59-41 margin and for Sinema over her challenger Dave Giles 61-39 last year. While Sinema’s entrance into the Senate race may be exciting, the election she leaves behind isn’t. We rate the seat Safe Democratic, and depending on the Democrat who springs up to take her place, the district may shift towards a healthily blue Likely Democratic.

Inside the Beltway


TX-10: Dreams of a special election in the vast Texas district were crushed on Thursday when the Austin-American statesman uncovered that Rep. Michael McCaul (R) is no longer in the running for Secretary of Homeland Security. McCaul bested his opponent here by 20 points last year, while Donald Trump carried the district 55-45. It is unlikely that a Democrat could pull off an upset against this well funded and established Republican incumbent, but there is still a chance that enthusiasm from the special election possibility can spill over to the 2018 general. Decision Desk HQ rates the seat as a pretty red Lean Republican district.

Data roundup

House Election

According to the latest House data

  • Democrats are up 7.6% in the national congressional generic ballot
  • They have about a 1/3rd shot at winning a House majority
  • Democrats have a 10% chance of winning more than 250 seats.

Trump Approval

  • According to FiveThirtyEight’s average of Trump approval polls, his rating has taken a slight dip. We’ll see whether than holds up.

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