DDHQ 2018 House Updates – September 25, 2017

Welcome to our daily DDHQ House Elections Updates. I’m your host, G. Elliott Morris. Questions, comments, concerns? Feel free to pass along via email or twitter. There are 407 days until the 2018 midterm elections. Democrats are up in the generic ballot by 7.6% and we rate 196 seats as Safe, Likely or Lean Democratic, 12 as Tossup, and 227 as Safe, Likely, or Lean Republican. Check our full U.S. House forecast here and read our full list of ratings here


Here’s what happened in elections to the U.S. House over the weekend, September 22 – 24, 2017.


At Home


CT-03: Democratic Rep. Rosa DeLauro better be prepared for a primary tussle, because that’s what Bryan Anderson is promising to bring in this coastal New Haven contest. Anderson is a frequent face of New Haven and the nearby Hamden, having worked a variety of high-profile bureaucratic jobs in the cities and as a special education teacher in the Bronx for the past 15 years. This background, while certainly not one of an experienced elected official, could be useful in shoring up support for a primary bid against one of Connecticut’s most established politicians. Rep. DeLauro has been in the House since 1991. Given that she won her last competitive election by 38 points, we rate this seat Safe Democratic.

MN-01: A seventh Democrat has jumped into the battle for retiring Rep. Tim Walz’s southern Minnesota district. U.S. Navy Veteran Robert Ries hopes to be the lucky pick to face the likely Republican nominee and former MN-01 candidate Jim Hagedorn next November. Minnesota’s first congressional district has swung four points to the right since 2014, delivering Hagedorn a razor-thin loss last year. Even though Rep. Walz won the seat in November 2016, the district picked Donald Trump by a nearly 20 point margin. Decision Desk HQ currently rates the seat as Lean Republican, given Hagedorn’s tenacity and relatively successful electoral performance.


Inside the Beltway

  • The House is set to take on a laundry list of issues this week, starting with a hurricane relief package on Monday and moving on to tax reform and hearings on the Russia investigation late on. In terms of 2017, the Russia investigation and hurricanes Harvey and Irma are the major events — along with health care — that have plausibly moved the needle of Donald Trump’s and Republican Party approval ratings. It’s worth noting that the state of the economy is one of the biggest factors people take into account when deciding who to vote for, and tax cuts can (and often do) massively shift the state of our economy. Depending on Congressional action on this in coming weeks, it could set the stage for voting in 2018.


Data roundup

House Election

According to the latest House data

  • Democrats are up 7.6% in the national congressional generic ballot
  • They have about a 1/3rd shot at winning a House majority
  • Democrats have a 10% chance of winning more than 250 seats.


Trump Approval

  • Trump’s approval is steadily climbing up to 40% in Gallup’s weekly tracker. He has posted the biggest gains with young voters, college graduates, and conservative Democrats.


Want these updates in your inbox each day? Subscribe to my newsletter — which includes other weekly political and polling analyses — via my blog or follow me on Twitter for even more discussion.