DDHQ 2018 House Updates – September 21, 2017

Welcome to our daily DDHQ House Elections Updates. I’m your host, G. Elliott Morris. Questions, comments, concerns? Feel free to pass along via email or twitter. There are 411 days until the 2018 midterm elections. Democrats are up in the generic ballot by 7.6% and we rate 196 seats as Safe, Likely or Lean Democratic, 12 as Tossup, and 227 as Safe, Likely, or Lean Republican. Check our full U.S. House forecast here and read our full list of ratings here

Here’s what happened in elections to the U.S. House on Wednesday, September 20, 2017.


At Home

MD-06: Democratic candidate for this northwestern Maryland seat Bill Frick has dropped out of the race. Frick will instead seek the position of Montgomery County Executive, a position that has drawn much less attention than the high-profile House race. Frick has been floated as one of the stronger candidates in the district, largely because of his experience in elected office and connections to statewide donors. He has served in the Maryland House of Delegates since 2007. This open district gave Hillary Clinton 58% of the vote in last year’s presidential election.


In the Beltway


KY-04: Rep. Thomas Massie (R) is set to get a fundraising alley-oop from Pennsylvania’s Bill Shuster, the Republican representative from their ninth district. The two will hold their high-dollar fundraiser at the prestigious Capitol Hill Club next week. Massie reportedly has $244,716 cash on hand, a comparatively small amount for an incumbent. Though, that’s not much of a problem: Massie represents the 214th most competitive House seat, so he may not even draw a viable Democratic challenger next year. Indeed, as of now, no Democrat or Republican has announced for the seat.



  • The new health care proposal from Republican Senators Bill Cassidy and Lindsey Graham is reportedly detrimental to some key Republican constituencies.
  • House Republicans announced a retreat next weekend to hash out the details of their tax reform proposals. These types of intense group-input legislative processes will be key for the survival of their tax bill; as we’ve seen, Republicans have failed so far to put together working coalitions on most major issues.


Data roundup

House Election

According to the latest House data

  • Democrats are up 7.6% in the national congressional generic ballot
  • They have a slightly better than 1:3 shot at winning a House majority
  • 50 Republican and 4 Democratic seats are within the margin of error in our forecast.
  • Notably, PA-15 keeps swinging between Democrat and Republican in our forecast model. It’s the most vulnerable seat — at least according to the math.



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