Welcome to our daily DDHQ House Elections Updates. I’m your host, G. Elliott Morris. Questions, comments, concerns? Feel free to pass along via email or twitter. There are 412 days until the 2018 midterm elections. Democrats are up in the generic ballot by 7.4% and we rate 196 seats as Safe, Likely or Lean Democratic, 12 as Tossup, and 227 as Safe, Likely, or Lean Republican. Check our full U.S. House forecast here and read our full list of ratings here.
Here’s what happened in elections to the U.S. House on Tuesday, September 19, 2017.
Endorsement Day for Democrats
NC-02: A former State representative and candidate for North Carolina Lieutenant Governor has entered the race to unseat Rep. George Holding (R). Linda Coleman, a Democrat with a long history in North Carolina, is optimistic about her chances to flip the district blue in the 2018 midterms. She may be onto something: the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee included in July NC-02 on a list of districts its targeting next round, and according to our forecast model at DDHQ the seat is the 35th most vulnerable in the House, putting it in the top 10% of races when ranked for competitiveness. Of course, there are other factors we have to consider. Decision Desk HQ currently rates the seat as Lean Republican.
NC-11: After a few months mulling it over, Democrat Scott Donaldson has announced his candidacy for North Carolina’s eleventh congressional district. This rural district is currently represented by Rep. Mark Meadows (R), the chairman of the conservative House Freedom Caucus. Donaldson looks to be setting his sights on healthcare to take down Rep. Meadows, saying in his announcement that he prefers a system that would insure all Americans. It is likely a high-risk-questionable-reward strategy for a Democrat to run on a platform for universal healthcare in a district that voted for its Republican representative by a 25 point margin. However, it’s likely a necessary position in Donaldson’s primary battle against entrepreneur Phillip Price, who is calling for a single-payer Medicare for all approach to universal healthcare. Decision Desk HQ currently rates the seat as Likely Republican.
NV-03: Philanthropist and front-runner Democrat Susie Lee announced a slew of endorsements Tuesday, mostly from former elected and party officials in the district. Lee is running to succeed Senate candidate Rep. Jacky Rosen (D). Trump won this district by just over 1% in the 2016 election, and in a wave environment with the right flow of money from the NV Democratic establishment, it should lean slightly blue.
PA-16: Christina Hartman, who is looking to rematch freshman Republican Rep. Lloyd Smucker in this lean Republican seat, announced a lot of endorsements yesterday from a laundry list of top Pennsylvania state officials. The district voted for Donald Trump with 54% of the vote last November and gave Smucker the a-okay with 56%.
IL-06: IL-02’s Rep. Robin Kelly has come to the aid of Democrat Carole Cheney, one of nine candidates looking to flip this lean Republican seat. With such a large bench of opponents, the high-profile endorsement from a sitting member of Congress should provide a boost — even if small — to Cheney that could make a big difference in the months to come. IL-06, while rated Lean Republican, is one of the top-ten opportunities for a Democratic pickup in 2016. Clinton won 53% in the district, while the Republican incumbent Peter Roskam won 60%.
According to the latest House data…
- Democrats are up 7.4% in the national congressional generic ballot
- They have about a 1/3rd shot at winning a House majority
- 50 Republican and 4 Democratic seats are within the margin of error in our forecast.
- Trump’s approval is sitting between 38 and 40%, depending on which average you consult. Little change since yesterday.
- Virginia Governor