DDHQ 2018 House Updates – October 24, 2017

Welcome to our daily DDHQ House Elections Updates. I’m your host, G. Elliott Morris. Questions, comments, concerns? Feel free to pass along via email or twitter. There are 378 days until the 2018 midterm elections. Democrats are up in the generic ballot by 6.5% and we rate 195 seats as Safe, Likely or Lean Democratic, 13 as Tossup, and 227 as Safe, Likely, or Lean Republican. Check our full U.S. House forecast here and read our full list of ratings here. Sign up here to get these updates via email.

Here’s what happened in elections to the U.S. House on Monday, October 23, 2017.

 

At Home


 

NH-01: A Marine veteran is the latest Democrat to announce her candidacy to run in this Tossup district, left open by retiring Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D). Maura Sullivan, a former Obama administration official became the third Democratic contender here when she announced her bid on Monday. Sullivan joins former attorney for Stafford county Lincoln Soldati and Rochester City Attorney Terence O’Rourke, who — while it’s still way too early to really know who’s ahead — may provide some substantial competition. Democratic activists have also been trying to recruit veterans as candidates for office; it often provides a nice boost to a candidate to be able to put a picture of themselves in uniform on their campaign website. New Hampshire’s first congressional district is considered one of the most “swingy” districts in the country and has changed parties every election since 2008. There are three Republican, one Libertarian, and one Independent candidate also competing for this seat. NH-01 voted for Donald Trump by a 1.6% margin.

 

 

Data Roundup


President Trump job approval polling

  • Trump’s job approval in my average is still hovering around 38-39%.

2018 House Midterms

According to the latest House forecast data

  • Democrats are up 6.5% in generic ballot polls, and 8.4% in our estimates of the election day two-party vote.
  • They have about a 46% shot at winning a House majority and a 15% chance of winning more than 250 seats.

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