DDHQ 2018 House Updates – October 23, 2017

Welcome to our daily DDHQ House Elections Updates. I’m your host, G. Elliott Morris. Questions, comments, concerns? Feel free to pass along via email or twitter. There are 379 days until the 2018 midterm elections. Democrats are up in the generic ballot by 6.5% and we rate 195 seats as Safe, Likely or Lean Democratic, 13 as Tossup, and 227 as Safe, Likely, or Lean Republican. Check our full U.S. House forecast here and read our full list of ratings here. Sign up here to get these updates via email.

Here’s what happened in elections to the U.S. House over the weekend, October 19-22, 2017.


At Home


TX-16: The race to succeed current Rep. and U.S. Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke (D) is heating up, and as is customary with Texas heat, things don’t look like they’ll cool down anytime soon. El Paso County Judge Veronica Escobar scored a big endorsement late last week when EMILY’s List gave her the thumbs up. With third-quarter fundraising numbers released, we can see that Escobar has a big $125,000 lead over her primary opponent Dori Fenenbock in dollars raised since August. For context, that’s nearly as much as the longest-serving member of the U.S. House, Alaska’s Rep. Don Young (R), raised in the entirety of the previous filing period — a huge sum of cash, to be sure. Escobar also has the endorsement of a progressive super PAC aligned with former candidate for the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination Howard Dean (remember him?), as well as some current members of Congress. Of course, the ultimate blow to Fenenbock’s bid came when Rep. O’Rourke endorsed Escobar back in late August. Decision Desk HQ rates the TX-16 open election as Safe Democratic, so whoever prevails as the Democrat’s pick in the spring primaries will be heavily favored to win the general election contest next November.


Not much else happened over this weekend. Be sure to read on below for other informative links!


Data Roundup

President Trump job approval polling

  • Trump’s job approval in my average is still hovering around 38-39%.


2018 House Midterms

According to the latest House forecast data

  • Democrats are up 6.5% in generic ballot polls, and 8.4% in our estimates of the election day two-party vote.
  • They have about a 46% shot at winning a House majority and a 15% chance of winning more than 250 seats.

Q3 funding:

According to FEC filings, races for the House are getting pretty expensive. Speaker of the House Paul Ryan has already raised north of ten million dollars, and the nearest member to his haul is Rep. Tiberi (OH-12) at $6M (notably, Tiberi is resigning from the House, despite his huge stockpile of cash).

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