DDHQ 2018 House Updates – October 2, 2017

Welcome to our daily DDHQ House Elections Updates. I’m your host, G. Elliott Morris. Questions, comments, concerns? Feel free to pass along via email or twitter. There are 400 days until the 2018 midterm elections. Democrats are up in the generic ballot by 8.2% and we rate 196 seats as Safe, Likely or Lean Democratic, 12 as Tossup, and 227 as Safe, Likely, or Lean Republican. Check our full U.S. House forecast here and read our full list of ratings here

Here’s what happened in elections to the U.S. House over the weekend, September 29 – October 1, 2017.

At Home


 

AZ-09: Since Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema announced that she’s running for Arizona’s U.S. Senate rumors have been swirling about who will replace her in the U.S. House. The mill seems to be deciding on Phoenix mayor Greg Stanton, who has publicly received some high-profile encouragement to run for the seat. Stanton has a lot going for him in this contest: he’s from a large city in the middle of hot-button border and immigration policy issues and endorsed Hillary Clinton at a rally in Arizona in 2016. He’s the probable front-runner in the race to succeed Sinema, though he faces some viable opposition in 2016 candidate for Arizona’s 5th district Talia Fuentes. The winner of the Democratic primary would be the presumed winner of the November general election, as AZ-09 voted for Sinema by 21% and Hillary Clinton by 18%. Decision Desk rates Arizona’s ninth as Safe Democratic.

Inside the Beltway


 

  • It’s not exactly the Beltway, and it’s not the House, but the politics are similar: Hillary Clinton and President George W. Bush will be in New York City, NY and Alexandria, VA in the coming weeks to raise money for their respective candidates in the 2017 Virginia Gubernatorial race. It’s not atypical to see such high-profile political leaders help out candidates in tight races, but it is interesting to see Dubya hitting the trail again after a long absence from such functions.

Data roundup



House Election

According to the latest House data

  • Democrats are up 8.2% in the national congressional generic ballot
  • They have about a 1/3rd shot at winning a House majority
  • Democrats have a 10% chance of winning more than 250 seats.

Trump Approval

  • According to FiveThirtyEight’s average of Trump approval polls, his rating has taken a slight dip. We’ll see whether than holds up.

 


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