DDHQ 2018 House Updates – October 12, 2017

Welcome to our daily DDHQ House Elections Updates. I’m your host, G. Elliott Morris. Questions, comments, concerns? Feel free to pass along via email or twitter. There are 391 days until the 2018 midterm elections. Democrats are up in the generic ballot by 8.2% and we rate 195 seats as Safe, Likely or Lean Democratic, 12 as Tossup, and 227 as Safe, Likely, or Lean Republican. Check our full U.S. House forecast here and read our full list of ratings here

Here’s what happened in elections to the U.S. House on Wednesday, October 11.


NH-01: Sooner or later, we’re going to run out of things to write for this district. But until then, it appears that the announcements will come every day, and we’re here to cover them! Somersworth Mayor Dana Hilliard is the next wannabe Democratic nominee in this Tossup congressional district, the 5th of such potential candidates. Notably, none of the 5 have officially declared their candidacy to try to succeed Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D). The developments are so rapid that it is hard to gauge who may be ahead in endorsement battles.


MI-11: We are two-for-two in analyzing developments from some of our favorite newsworthy districts today. State Rep. Kurt Heise announced Wednesday that he’s joining the Republican primary to succeed retiring U.S. Rep Dave Trott. Heise’s announcement will probably not disrupt the race dynamics here: there are plenty of former (and current) state representatives among the five Republicans vying for the nod from their party. It is not inconceivable that Heise could win, as it is so early, but most handicappers have settled on former Senate candidate Lena Epstein as the front runner. Though Heise says he is a true party boss-fighting outsider, and MI-11 has embraced outsider candidates before, we don’t see him shaking the apple cart up just yet.

MI-11 is situated northwest of Detroit and is contains many of the region’s affluent white voters. The district runs about average in education levels: 34% hold a bachelor’s degree.


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