DDHQ 2018 House Updates – November 15, 2017

Welcome to our daily DDHQ House Elections Updates. I’m your host, G. Elliott Morris. Questions, comments, concerns? Feel free to pass along via email or twitter. There are 356 days until the 2018 midterm elections. Democrats are up in the generic ballot by 7.2% and we rate 195 seats as Safe, Likely or Lean Democratic, 14 as Tossup, and 226 as Safe, Likely, or Lean Republican. Check our full U.S. House forecast here and read our full list of ratings here. Sign up here to get these updates via email.

A recap of House election news from November 13 and 14, 2017.


At Home


WA-05: Consolidation behind Democratic opponent. Democratic hopeful Matthew Sutherland has dropped out of the running for his party’s nomination to run against Republican U.S.Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers next fall. Sutherland dropped his bid in what seems to be a reaction to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee endorsing his primary opponent, Lisa Brown, last week. The DCCC’s move is likely a good one as Brown raised $224,000 last quarter — noticeably more than Sutherland’s $8,000. Though the research says that money doesn’t matter in House general elections (so long as the candidate is good) Brown’s drawer (really, more like a whole dresser) full of cash affirms our view that she is a viable candidate to take on Rep. McMorris Rodgers in the 2018 cycle, albeit still an underdog. Donald Trump won this district 57-43 last November, and Democrat Joe Pakootas ran slightly behind Clinton with 41% of the vote. Decision Desk HQ currently rates WA-05 as Likely Republican.


NH-01: 11th candidate joins race for open seat. Democratic State Rep. Mindi Messmer joined the race for this open seat on Monday, making her the sixth Democrat to do so and eleventh candidate overall. These 11 candidates have announced in rapid succession, since U.S. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) announced that she would not be seeking r-eelection next year. Though we need more data to properly gauge the Democratic primary in the district, Messmer is looking like one of the stronger candidates for the nomination, having held elective office before. Fundraising numbers are somewhat telling for primary elections, so we’ll wait for fourth quarter reports due at the end of this year to say anything substantial about the contest. Looking ahead to the general election, this seat could be won by either party. NH-01 is one of the most competitive districts in the country, having changed parties every year since 2010. Though Democrats appeared to have a lead there earlier this year (and the currently political environment suggests they may have one next November), Shea-Porter’s absence from the race moved our rating of the contest from Lean Democratic to Tossup — a rating we foresee holding until election day even as more candidates jump in the race. Hillary Clinton won 49% of the two-party vote here last year, one of the few districts that shifted toward Trump but away from the Republican House representative.


Data Roundup

President Trump job approval polling

  • Trump’s job approval in my average is 38%.


2018 House Midterms

According to the latest House forecast data

  • Democrats are up 7.2% in my average of generic ballot polls, and 8.8% in our estimates of the election day two-party vote.
  • They have about a 51% shot at winning a House majority and an 18% chance of winning more than 250 seats.

Reading list


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