2017 UK General Election Live Blog

650 seats out of 650

Labour 262

Conservative 318 (ANTICIPATE COALITION W DUP)

SNP 35

DUP 10 –(ANTICIPATE CON COALITION PARTNER)

Sinn Fein 7

Plaid Cymru 4

Lib Dem 12

Green 1

Speaker 1

Note- 1 seat misidentified as IND actually DUP. Only seat this morning left to declare (due to recounts) is Kensington, a Conservative stronghold, which is rumored to have gone to Labour.

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12:42am

It’s going to be a hung Parliament, and the BBC is calling that too. Conservative-DUP coalition likely.

12:40am

If Conservatives win every remaining Conservative seat:

320. 1 shy of 321.

Looking more and more like a hung Parliament

12:28am ET

here’s whats left, listed with party in current control

Ashfield (LAB) – LABOUR HOLD

BerwickuponTweed(CON) — HOLD

Brighton, Pavillion (GRN)– Green HOLD

Ceredigion (LibDem)– Plaid Cymru GAIN

Chipping Barnet (CON)– CON HOLD

Crewe and Nantwich (CON)

Croydon South (CON)– CON HOLD

Dudley North (LAB)

Dumfries and Galloway (SNP)– CON GAIN

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale, Tweeddale (CON)– CON HOLD

Newcastle-under-Lyme (LAB) LAB HOLD

North Cornwall (CON)

North East Fife (SNP) — SNP wins final recount by 2

Richmond Park (CON) –going to recount again
South East Cornwall (CON)

Southampton, Itchen (CON)– CON HOLD

Southampton, Test(LAB) —- HOLD LABOUR
St Austell And Newquay (CON) — lib dem concedes, Con hold

St Ives (CON)

Torridge and West Devon (CON) <—CON HOLD

Truro and Falmouth (CON)— CON hold

updated 1236am

12:05am ET

So here’s the math- Conservatives can have a nominal majority with 321- speaker seat + Sinn Fein knocks the number down. But there are only 31 seats remaining….

10:37pm Eastern:

How bad is this for the Conservatives? They lost Canterbury, which they’d held since WWI. The incumbent had represented the seat for 30 years.

10:20pm Eastern:

Theresa May is giving her victory speech for her constituency. Promises “stability” if it turns out the Conservative Party wins the most seats and votes. She’s essentially conceding there’s going to be a “hung Parliament”.

BBC now predicting:

318 seats for Conservatives. That’s 8 seats short of an outright majority.

267 for Labour.

11 for the Lib Dems.

 

10pm Eastern:

One of the factors in Labour victories may be the youth vote turning out. Younger voters were more likely to support the Remain campaign but didn’t vote in large enough numbers in the referendum. They may have taken advantage of the second bite of the cherry.

Part of Labour’s appeal was a plan to reduce college costs and debt. Expect Democrats in the US to take notice.

Nick Clegg, the former leader of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Deputy Prime Minister in the coalition government with Conservatives from May 2010-May 2015 has been defeated in a pickup for the Labour party.

Updated 846pm:

numbers moving so fast wer’e updating total numbers of seats now instead of individual constituencies

Updated 843pm:

LAB hold Caerphilly, stratford-on-avon

Warley, Ealing North also held by Labour

LAB holds Clywd South, Hartlepool, St Helens North.

CON Hold Norfolk South

SNP HOLD Dunbartonshire West

CON hold Yeovil, Dover

LAB holds Burnley

LAB gains Rutherglend & Hamilton West from SNP

Con hold- Putney

Con hold Montgomeryshire, Newton Abbott, Castle Point

Labour hold Knowsley

LAB hold Ogmore

CON hold in Harlow, Havant

LAB holds Barnsley East

SNP holds Paisley, Kilmarnock&Loudoun

DUP hold Stranford

CON hold Hertsmere, Rayleigh & Wickford

DUP hold Lagan Valley

Battersea- Labour GAINS from CON. London is going to be a bloodbath for Conservatives at this rate.

Carlisle- Conservative HOLD

Makerfield- Labour HOLD

Tooting- Labout HOLD <—borders Battersea, 12k gain in Tooting.

Wigan- Labour HOLD

updated 8:18pm

Birkenhead- Labour HOLD

Rutherglen & Hamilton East Labour GAIN from SNP

Vale of Clywd- Labour GAIN from CON

Down North- Independent HOLD

Halton- Labour HOLD

Leigh- Labour HOLD

Bolton West- Labour GAIN from CON

Harrowgate- Conservative HOLD

Wrexham- Labour hold

Llanelli- Labour hold

Swindon South- Conservative HOLD

Jarrow- Labour HOLD

update 8:08pm

Basildon South-Conservative hold CON swing

update 7:58pm

South Shields- Labour HOLD

Stockton North- Labour HOLD

Darlington- Labour HOLD

update 7:52pm

Rudd apparently heading to recount…

updated 7:44pm

Two more Labour holds but both swung to the Conservatives: Workington and Middlesborough

updated 7:43pm

Basildon and Billericay, Conservative hold. Near even division of former UKIP vote.

updated 7:37pm

Broxbourne-

UKIP 1918, Labour 13723, Conservative 29,521

Slight swing towards labour

updated 7:34pm

Nuneaton- Conservative hold, splits 2015 UKIP vote with Labour

updated 7:30pm

Kettering- Conservative hold, swing towards Labour

updated 7:25pm

Newcastle Upon Tyne North

Labour hold, with slight Conservative swing

updated 7:14pm

Washington and Sunderland West, Labour hold, but with a Conservative bump up

updated 7:05pm

5/650 in, net swing to Labour so far

updated 7:01pm

Newcastle Upon Tyne East

Labour 28127 Conservative 8866 UKIP 1315 LD 2574

Swindon North

Labout 21096 UKIP 1564 29431

Both seeing UKIP vote drift more towards Labour than Con

updated 6:57pm

Sunderland Central

Conservative 15059 Labour 25056 UKIP 2209 Labour hold but considerable Conservative bump from ’15

updated 6:45pm

Cambridge expected soon. Went narrowly Labour over Lib Dem in 2015.

updated 6:42pm

Another thought from looking at the very early areas: ALL third parties declined. Green and Lib Dem dropped too, if you assume most of those voters went to Labour, then overall the UKIP vote is going 2-1 Conservative now. Let’s see what else shakes loose up north.

updated 6:21pm

From contributor Daniel Rego, it may come down to where the UKIP voter wandered. We’ve had two constituencies where that third party vote dissolved- one which divided more evenly between CON and LAB, the other (Houghton) shifted 2-1 to CON.

updated 6:17pm EDT

Houghton & Sunderland South (another Labour stronghold)

Labour 59.6%, Con 29.6%, UKIP 5.7%. Labour picked up a little over 4%, Conservative 11%, UKIP dropped by almost 16%

updated at 6:11pm EDT

Newcastle upon Tyne Central (per SkyNews)

Labour 24071 Conservative 9134 UKIP 1482

(expected Labour hold, voted Remain)

Per SkyNews, that’s in line with the exit poll

updated 6:02pm ET

Sunderland close to announcing. Its a very big Labour area so not a great tea leaf to read.

updated at 5:45pm ET

Waiting for first results. If the exit poll holds, you’re looking at a very happy Corbyn.

updated at 540pm ET

Exits:

Conservative 314 (12 short of majority)

Labour 266

Lib Dem 14

SNP 34

UKIP 0

updated at 5pm EDT

Recap of expected seats:

YouGov, election model: CON 302 and a hung Parliament.

Britain Elects, election model: CON 353.

Lord Michael Ashcroft, British pollster and former deputy Conservative Party leader: CON 357.

Martin Baxter, British psephologist: CON 361.

Washington Post Monkey Cage: CON 361.

Chris Hanretty, University of East Anglia: CON 371.

PM and Pendulum, election model: CON 372.

Matt Singh, who correctly predicted polling inaccuracies in the 2015 election: CON 374.

Thomas Scotto, University of Strathclyde, in interview: CON 380-390.

Iain Dale, British talk-show host and former Norfolk North MP candidate: CON 386.

Ian Warren, British political consultant who has advised all parties: CON 387.

Our own Nathan Wurtzel, CON 359-379.

posted at 4:35pm EDT

Hello all!

This is a first for us here at the Desk: watching the results in another country. Unlike our coverage of United States elections, we aren’t providing our own returns- but we are keeping a running tally of seats.

Polls across the United Kingdom close at 10pm BST, with the exits released immediately. Though slightly off in 2015, they still delivered a bit of a shock two years ago, showing an expanded Conservative tally (and forecasting they’d still fall short of a majority- which they didn’t). Polls have been all over the place, but an average yields an expected 7 point margin for Conservative. Of course, how that translates into seats isn’t an exact science: a number of election forecasters have considerably varying seat tallies.

Stick with us tonight as we watch the numbers from the other side of the Atlantic.

posted at 4:21pm EDT