650 seats out of 650
Conservative 318 (ANTICIPATE COALITION W DUP)
DUP 10 –(ANTICIPATE CON COALITION PARTNER)
Sinn Fein 7
Plaid Cymru 4
Lib Dem 12
Note- 1 seat misidentified as IND actually DUP. Only seat this morning left to declare (due to recounts) is Kensington, a Conservative stronghold, which is rumored to have gone to Labour.
It’s going to be a hung Parliament, and the BBC is calling that too. Conservative-DUP coalition likely.
If Conservatives win every remaining Conservative seat:
320. 1 shy of 321.
Looking more and more like a hung Parliament
here’s whats left, listed with party in current control
Ashfield (LAB) – LABOUR HOLD
BerwickuponTweed(CON) — HOLD
Brighton, Pavillion (GRN)– Green HOLD
Ceredigion (LibDem)– Plaid Cymru GAIN
Chipping Barnet (CON)– CON HOLD
Crewe and Nantwich (CON)
Croydon South (CON)– CON HOLD
Dudley North (LAB)
Dumfries and Galloway (SNP)– CON GAIN
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale, Tweeddale (CON)– CON HOLD
Newcastle-under-Lyme (LAB) LAB HOLD
North Cornwall (CON)
North East Fife (SNP) — SNP wins final recount by 2
Richmond Park (CON) –going to recount again
South East Cornwall (CON)
Southampton, Itchen (CON)– CON HOLD
Southampton, Test(LAB) —- HOLD LABOUR
St Austell And Newquay (CON) — lib dem concedes, Con hold
St Ives (CON)
Torridge and West Devon (CON) <—CON HOLD
Truro and Falmouth (CON)— CON hold
So here’s the math- Conservatives can have a nominal majority with 321- speaker seat + Sinn Fein knocks the number down. But there are only 31 seats remaining….
How bad is this for the Conservatives? They lost Canterbury, which they’d held since WWI. The incumbent had represented the seat for 30 years.
Theresa May is giving her victory speech for her constituency. Promises “stability” if it turns out the Conservative Party wins the most seats and votes. She’s essentially conceding there’s going to be a “hung Parliament”.
BBC now predicting:
318 seats for Conservatives. That’s 8 seats short of an outright majority.
267 for Labour.
11 for the Lib Dems.
One of the factors in Labour victories may be the youth vote turning out. Younger voters were more likely to support the Remain campaign but didn’t vote in large enough numbers in the referendum. They may have taken advantage of the second bite of the cherry.
Part of Labour’s appeal was a plan to reduce college costs and debt. Expect Democrats in the US to take notice.
Nick Clegg, the former leader of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Deputy Prime Minister in the coalition government with Conservatives from May 2010-May 2015 has been defeated in a pickup for the Labour party.
numbers moving so fast wer’e updating total numbers of seats now instead of individual constituencies
LAB hold Caerphilly, stratford-on-avon
Warley, Ealing North also held by Labour
LAB holds Clywd South, Hartlepool, St Helens North.
CON Hold Norfolk South
SNP HOLD Dunbartonshire West
CON hold Yeovil, Dover
LAB holds Burnley
LAB gains Rutherglend & Hamilton West from SNP
Con hold- Putney
Con hold Montgomeryshire, Newton Abbott, Castle Point
Labour hold Knowsley
LAB hold Ogmore
CON hold in Harlow, Havant
LAB holds Barnsley East
SNP holds Paisley, Kilmarnock&Loudoun
DUP hold Stranford
CON hold Hertsmere, Rayleigh & Wickford
DUP hold Lagan Valley
Battersea- Labour GAINS from CON. London is going to be a bloodbath for Conservatives at this rate.
Carlisle- Conservative HOLD
Makerfield- Labour HOLD
Tooting- Labout HOLD <—borders Battersea, 12k gain in Tooting.
Wigan- Labour HOLD
Birkenhead- Labour HOLD
Rutherglen & Hamilton East Labour GAIN from SNP
Vale of Clywd- Labour GAIN from CON
Down North- Independent HOLD
Halton- Labour HOLD
Leigh- Labour HOLD
Bolton West- Labour GAIN from CON
Harrowgate- Conservative HOLD
Wrexham- Labour hold
Llanelli- Labour hold
Swindon South- Conservative HOLD
Jarrow- Labour HOLD
Basildon South-Conservative hold CON swing
South Shields- Labour HOLD
Stockton North- Labour HOLD
Darlington- Labour HOLD
Rudd apparently heading to recount…
Two more Labour holds but both swung to the Conservatives: Workington and Middlesborough
Basildon and Billericay, Conservative hold. Near even division of former UKIP vote.
UKIP 1918, Labour 13723, Conservative 29,521
Slight swing towards labour
Nuneaton- Conservative hold, splits 2015 UKIP vote with Labour
Kettering- Conservative hold, swing towards Labour
Newcastle Upon Tyne North
Labour hold, with slight Conservative swing
Washington and Sunderland West, Labour hold, but with a Conservative bump up
5/650 in, net swing to Labour so far
Newcastle Upon Tyne East
Labour 28127 Conservative 8866 UKIP 1315 LD 2574
Labout 21096 UKIP 1564 29431
Both seeing UKIP vote drift more towards Labour than Con
Conservative 15059 Labour 25056 UKIP 2209 Labour hold but considerable Conservative bump from ’15
Cambridge expected soon. Went narrowly Labour over Lib Dem in 2015.
Another thought from looking at the very early areas: ALL third parties declined. Green and Lib Dem dropped too, if you assume most of those voters went to Labour, then overall the UKIP vote is going 2-1 Conservative now. Let’s see what else shakes loose up north.
From contributor Daniel Rego, it may come down to where the UKIP voter wandered. We’ve had two constituencies where that third party vote dissolved- one which divided more evenly between CON and LAB, the other (Houghton) shifted 2-1 to CON.
updated 6:17pm EDT
Houghton & Sunderland South (another Labour stronghold)
Labour 59.6%, Con 29.6%, UKIP 5.7%. Labour picked up a little over 4%, Conservative 11%, UKIP dropped by almost 16%
updated at 6:11pm EDT
Newcastle upon Tyne Central (per SkyNews)
Labour 24071 Conservative 9134 UKIP 1482
(expected Labour hold, voted Remain)
Per SkyNews, that’s in line with the exit poll
updated 6:02pm ET
Sunderland close to announcing. Its a very big Labour area so not a great tea leaf to read.
updated at 5:45pm ET
Waiting for first results. If the exit poll holds, you’re looking at a very happy Corbyn.
updated at 540pm ET
— Bloomberg (@business) June 8, 2017
Conservative 314 (12 short of majority)
Lib Dem 14
updated at 5pm EDT
Recap of expected seats:
YouGov, election model: CON 302 and a hung Parliament.
Britain Elects, election model: CON 353.
Lord Michael Ashcroft, British pollster and former deputy Conservative Party leader: CON 357.
Martin Baxter, British psephologist: CON 361.
Washington Post Monkey Cage: CON 361.
Chris Hanretty, University of East Anglia: CON 371.
PM and Pendulum, election model: CON 372.
Matt Singh, who correctly predicted polling inaccuracies in the 2015 election: CON 374.
Thomas Scotto, University of Strathclyde, in interview: CON 380-390.
Iain Dale, British talk-show host and former Norfolk North MP candidate: CON 386.
Ian Warren, British political consultant who has advised all parties: CON 387.
Our own Nathan Wurtzel, CON 359-379.
posted at 4:35pm EDT
This is a first for us here at the Desk: watching the results in another country. Unlike our coverage of United States elections, we aren’t providing our own returns- but we are keeping a running tally of seats.
Polls across the United Kingdom close at 10pm BST, with the exits released immediately. Though slightly off in 2015, they still delivered a bit of a shock two years ago, showing an expanded Conservative tally (and forecasting they’d still fall short of a majority- which they didn’t). Polls have been all over the place, but an average yields an expected 7 point margin for Conservative. Of course, how that translates into seats isn’t an exact science: a number of election forecasters have considerably varying seat tallies.
Stick with us tonight as we watch the numbers from the other side of the Atlantic.
posted at 4:21pm EDT