The 2020 election isn’t just about the Presidential election, the Senate race is just as important. And as of today, it is shaping up to be a good one. I just finished my Senate forecast, and it is almost a coin flip at the moment. The Republicans are favored in 51, counting the seats not up for election, and Democrats at 49. The map below shows the current projection.
There are several key races to look at, and I will go over them below. Right now Alabama looks almost as a solid flip to Republicans, so it isn’t worth going to in depth over. The first state that is key in this race is Arizona. Mark Kelly (D) looks likely to win his Senate seat from appointed Incumbent Martha McSally (R). In the recent head to head polls between them, Kelly is leading comfortably. Working West to East, the next key state is Montana. With Steve Bullock (D) entering the race, this seat has become competitive. Still the Republicans are favored to keep this seat, but don’t look past is a flip for the Democrats. The next key state is Colorado. Colorado is shifting quickly towards the Democrats, and I see this as another likely pickup for the Democrats. I could see a popular Republican Senator holding on her, but Cory Gardner just doesn’t fit that title. Iowa has been the talk of a potentially competitive race, however, I still see Joni Ernst (R) holding on here, but might be a close race. North Carolina as of right now is the 51st state that Republicans are favored in, but barely. Thom Tillis (R) is only favored by 0.4 percentage points, and it’s shaping up to be a real competitive race. Lastly, is in my opinion is the most interesting race of them all, Maine. Susan Collins (R) has been in the Senate since 1996, and is hoping to continue this streak. In a democratic leaning state, she is going to have to try and get people to focus on her moderate ideals (voting 43% with Trump in the 116th Congress) to win this seat.
The last 2 races I want to go over are both in the same state. Georgia has a normal and special election this election. They both seem pretty likely to stay with the Republicans, however, not solid. Georgia’s special election is going to be very interesting, given it is a Louisiana Primary. This kind of election is one where it is open and there are multiple candidates from each party. If no one is able to get above 50 percent, there will be a run off where the top 2 candidates face off.
I hope you liked the introduction, and stay tuned in for the rest of the election season.