The Nutmeg State has only a few contested primaries this evening. It’s governor’s mansion is one of the few in the country that Republicans have a shot at flipping, and one House seat could prove just as interesting in the general as it does in today’s primary: Rep. Elizabeth Etsy’s.
While originally a crowded primary, business executive Ned Lamont and Bridgeport Mayor Joe Ganim are the last men standing before today in a race that, with more party endorsements and money spent, should favor Lamont, but stranger things have happened. Long before the two big cities of New Haven and Hartford roll, watch who racks up the winds along the Gold Coast and metro Hartford.
Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton won the state party’s convention endorsement back in May and led in the final Tremont Public Advisors poll before today’s primary. Business executive Bob Stefanowski seems to be his strongest challenger and his campaign has released polling putting him ahead of Boughton by double digits. Hedge fund manager David Sterman and entrepreneur Steve Obsitnik are also in the running but haven’t placed near the top in the few surveys we’ve seen released. Republican voters are concentrated heavily in the western third of the state, but with a race more open than the Democrats, tonight will be more wait-and-see than “look at these bellwethers”.
Matthew Corey won the state party convention endorsement, but Dominic Rapini has the cash advantage in this sleeper race. Corey’s connections around Hartford combined with the party endorsement may push him over the top, but in a race getting virtually no attention, we’re in for a night of counting and crunching. Whomever emerges faces very long odds, as incumbent Senator Chris Murphy has almost $8.5 million cash on hand and is strongly favored in every model and prominent analyst rating.
Current incumbent Elizabeth Etsy has opted to retire, leaving a vacancy to fill in a district that only narrowly voted for Hillary Clinton. Mary Glassman and Jahana Hayes are in a tight race to replace her on the ballot: Glassman narrowly won the state party’s endorsement but trails Hayes in cash-on-hand. Glassman has the support of the remaining House delegation, Hayes the support of Senator Chris Murphy. It’s going to be a long count.
Former Meridian Mayor Manny Santos won the state party convention’s endorsement earlier this year, but trails both Ruby Corby-O’Neill and Richard DuPont in fundraising and cash-on-hand. DuPont also has the endorsement of the last Republican to hold this seat, Nancy Johnson.