- Democratic Senator Joe Manchin (WV) walked back on previous support for a more expansive reconciliation bill, publically announcing he will not support any bill with climate provisions or a tax hike on the wealthy. Manchin reportedly was especially worried about triggering further inflation within the US economy, spurred by the June 2022 CPI report, which showed inflation at 9.1% in the previous 12 months. Manchin and Schumer have been negotiating to reach an agreement for months. Manchin says he is now only interested in passing a bill that lowers prescription drug prices and extends subsidies for the Affordable Care Act by two years. Since Democrats only have a slim 50-50 majority in the Senate, earning Manchin’s vote is imperative to pass any deal.
- A new Georgia Statewide poll showed that voters are likely to vote in a split-ticker manner this November. While Senator Raphael Warnock (D) is polling 3% ahead of GOP Senate Nominee Herschel Walker, incumbent Republican Governor Brian Kemp is polling 7% ahead of Democratic Gubernatorial Nominee Stacey Abrams. While some analysts feel that Democrats are likely to begin polling worse as undecided voters break towards the GOP in this Republican Wave Year, supporters of Brian Kemp will feel very secure about their standing given these strong poll results.
- Although Republicans are confident they will be able to flip the House and several Governor’s Offices in a strong wave year, there are increasing worries within the party that their nominated senate candidates are too weak to flip the chamber. This would squander a great chance for the party, given the unpopularity of the Biden Administration and the rare opportunity to win a Senate supermajority in 2024. GOP Senate nominees in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Georgia are underperforming their gubernatorial candidates in polling by sizable amounts. Primaries in Missouri and Arizona could further decide the GOP’s fate, as nominations of Eric Greitens in Missouri and Blake Masters in Arizona could have disastrous consequences for the party.
- Iowa Republican Senator Chuck Grassley has said he feels it would be “unconstitutional” to curb travel for abortions, including across state borders. Especially given that Grassley is not generally at all a swing vote within the Republican caucus, it shows a lack of hunger within the Senate Republican Caucus to ban abortion nationwide, in blue states as well as red states. This is after a story of a 10-year-old girl who was raped and denied an abortion in Ohio and had to travel across state lines to Indiana to get an abortion.
|Tues July 19||Maryland Primary|
|MS State House 119 Special General|
|Tues July 26||Charlotte, NC mayoral general (rescheduled from 2021)|
|Greensboro, NC mayoral general (rescheduled from 2021)|
|Tues Aug 2||Arizona Primary|
|KS No Right to Abortion in Constitutional Amendment|
|Ohio State Legislative Primaries|
|Thurs Aug 4||Tennessee Primary|