- In June, inflation in the US reached a new 40-year high of 9.1% compared to prices a year earlier, with prices increasing by 1.3% alone from May to June 2022. This mostly expected news ensures that the US Fed will hike interest rates again, hoping to cool down the blazing hot economy. Given that the costs of necessities such as food, housing, and transportation are rising faster than wages, low-income Americans (who spend a higher portion of their income on these necessities) are being hit especially hard by this increased inflation. This news is a disaster for Democrats, who have to deal with the burden of incumbency in an imperfect economy this November.
- After their losses in Colorado, Democrats are back to interfering in GOP Governor Primaries in Maryland (July 19th primary) and Arizona (August 2nd). In Maryland, the DGA has pledged to spend over $1M on media to “attack” Maryland State Delegate Dan Cox for his conservative credentials, ostensibly hoping to boost him against moderate challenger Kelly Schulz. Schulz is endorsed by sitting Maryland GOP Governor Larry Hogan, and Democrats feel she would be a much stronger general election candidate than Trump-endorsed right-winger Dan Cox. Although Biden carried Maryland by 32% over Trump in 2020, Hogan won re-election by 12% in 2018. Although Hogan will be term-limited out of the office this year, he has been active in the primary and criticized Trump for his poor electoral record in Maryland. In Arizona, the AZ Democratic Party has distributed media hoping to boost far-right Trump-endorsed Kari Lake in her GOP Governor Primary over establishment pick Karrin Taylor Robson. The mailers “thank” Robson for her past financial support of Democrats, including progressive Ruben Gallego. Democrats hope this past activism could cast doubt on Robson’s conservative credentials and convince GOP base voters to pick Lake over her.
- Democrats have generally been unsuccessful in their efforts to trick GOP voters into picking more right-wing candidates. Democrats have wasted millions of dollars in failed meddling schemes across the nation, losing to Joe O’Dea and Heidi Ganahl in CO, Young Kim and David Valadao in CA, and Jen Kiggans in VA. Even the successes of these meddling schemes are questionable. Democrats successfully backed right-wing Trump-loyalist Doug Mastriano to victory in the PA GOP Governor Primary, but our colleagues at Elections Daily still only rate this race as “Lean D.” Although Dan Cox would be unlikely to win a general election in Maryland, Democrats are playing a very dangerous game in Arizona by hoping to boost Kari Lake, given that she certainly could win a general election this fall given the national political environment and would be unlikely to certify state election results against Donald Trump in 2024.
- Left-wing Senator Ed Markey surprisingly endorsed moderate Maryland Comptroller Peter Franchot in the MD Democratic Governor Primary. Franchot is the most moderate Democratic candidate in a race that includes former DNC Chair Tom Perez and Baltimore Businessman Wes Moore. Analysts have even compared Franchot’s political views to those of Maryland GOP Governor Larry Hogan more than any elected Democrat. Franchot previously worked in Markey’s office, likely explaining how the endorsement materialized.
- Check out Eric Cunningham’s explanation and breakdown of the cube-root rule at Elections Daily.
|Tues July 19||Maryland Primary|
|MS State House 119 Special General|
|Tues July 26||Charlotte, NC mayoral general (rescheduled from 2021)|
|Greensboro, NC mayoral general (rescheduled from 2021)|
|Tues Aug 2||Arizona Primary|
|KS No Right to Abortion in Constitutional Amendment|
|Ohio State Legislative Primaries|
|Thurs Aug 4||Tennessee Primary|