- After years of fighting, Senate Democrats finally passed a Budget Reconciliation Bill (deemed the Inflation Reduction Act) early Sunday afternoon. The bill passed after a 15-hour-long “vote-a-rama” in the Senate. Although most amendments proposed during the “vote-a-rama” were rejected, a Thune-Sinema amendment to exempt corporate taxes on businesses owned by private equity passed by a 57-43 margin, leaving Democrats scrambling. Given that the “SALT Caucus” in the House, led by Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ), would object to further capping State and Local tax deductions as a revenue stream, Democrats settled on an amendment opposed by Mark Warner by extending limits on how businesses can write off their losses for two years. The bill was carefully negotiated to boast support from Joe Manchin (D-WV), Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), and Gottheimer and is expected to pass the House in the coming weeks easily. The $700 billion bill contains various provisions primarily focused on climate, healthcare, and prescription drug cost management. It pays for itself through tax increases that primarily affect large corporations.
- In one of the most high-impact amendments to the IRA, 43 Senate Republicans blocked adding a $35 insulin price cap to the bill. Given that extending the price-cap of insulin to the private market was not compliant with the rules of the Budget Reconciliation process, which only needed 50 votes to pass, Democrats were forced to win over the votes of ten Republicans to keep the provision in the bill. Although all Democrats, moderate Republicans such as Susan Collins (ME) and Lisa Murkowski (AK), and more traditional hardline conservatives such as Josh Hawley (MO) and Cindy Hyde-Smith (MS) supported the price cap, it fell three Republicans short of passing.
- As Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis continues to rise in national popularity and emerges as a potential 2024 Presidential Nominee for his party, he has scheduled a series of national rallies (partnering with Turning Point Action) in an attempt to boast his party’s midterm results. The rallies will occur in various key battleground states, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, and Arizona. DeSantis will speak in support of many Trump-endorsed candidates such as JD Vance, Kari Lake, and Blake Masters. By speaking in support of these Trump-loyalist candidates, DeSantis likely hopes to shore up his support with the ultra-Trump loyalist wing of the party.
- With Trump-impeacher Republican incumbent Jamie Herrera Beutler only up 257 votes on Trump-endorsed populist Joe Kent for the second general election spot in the WA-03 Top Two Primary Election, more results today from late mail-in votes could decide the primary in favor of Kent. Democrat Marie Perez has already advanced to the general election and will be joined by Herrera Beutler or Kent. Given that Trump carried the district by 4% in 2020, Perez will be an extremely heavy underdog in the general election against whichever Republican can grab the second spot. If Herrera Beutler losses, it will leave David Valadao (R-CA) and Dan Newhouse (R-WA) as the only Republicans to make it through their party’s primary.
- Over at Elections Daily, Head of the Elections Team Joe Szymanski outlines some rating changes in 2022 House Races as Republicans begin to lose ground in the National Generic Ballot.