- Today is primary day in four states: Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina. Meanwhile, in Texas, voters in the Rio Grande Valley will head to the polls to fill a seat in Congress in a special election for the 34th congressional district. Check out DDHQ’s weekly primary preview video above to get all the information you need about what races to watch out for tonight, then be sure to follow the results as they come in on our results page: https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/june14-2022-elections
- In Nevada, both statewide races are considered prime pick-up opportunities for Republicans this fall. Vulnerable Incumbent Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto is expected to face the winner of tonight’s Republican Senate primary. Former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt is considered the front-runner and was endorsed by former-President Donald Trump early in his campaign. He has leaned heavily on the endorsement and was a key figure behind Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election results in Nevada. However, businessman and retired U.S. Army Captain Sam Brown has surged in polling over the last few weeks and has raised more small-dollar donations than Laxalt. One recent poll from June 6-7 by OH Predictive Insights had Laxalt at 48% and Brown at 34% — a major swing compared to an Emerson College poll from April 30-May 2 that had Laxalt at 50% and Brown down at 27%. Currently, RealClearPolitics’ polling average has Laxalt at 51%, compared to Brown’s 30%. This seat is considered a toss-up in November by most general election forecasters.
- Democratic Incumbent Gov. Steve Sisolak defeated Laxalt by 4 points in the 2018 general election for governor, but whoever wins the GOP primary tonight will face off against him in a much more favorable environment for Republicans. Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo, the Trump-endorsed candidate in the race, has enjoyed a healthy lead in polling. According to RealClearPolitics’ polling average, Lombardo leads with 33%, followed by attorney and former boxer Joey Gilbert at 18%, then former U.S. Senator Dean Heller at 15%, with North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee rounding out the candidates in double digits is at 12%.
- Nevada’s congressional races also hold some intrigue. In NV-01, Incumbent Democrat Dina Titus is facing a serious and well-funded challenge from her left by Amy Vilela. Vilela is endorsed by Cori Bush and Nina Turner, and the fundraising gap between her and Titus is much closer than you’d expect given Titus is running for her 5th term in office. This is a toss-up Biden+8 district and Titus’s campaign has argued that Vilela’s candidacy could hurt Democrats in November. Moving north to NV-02, Incumbent Republican Mark Amodei is also facing a serious and well-funded challenge from his right by Danny Tarkanian (a name you’ve probably heard before, given that he’s run unsuccessfully in NV-03 and NV-04). Amodei is from Carson City and will look to perform well in Washoe County, while Tarkanian, who has no home advantage in the district, hopes to gain on Amodei in the more rural counties such as Elko, Lyon, and Churchill.
- South Carolina’s primaries feature several internal Republican battles. Incumbent Reps. Nancy Mace and Tom Rice face Trump-endorsed challengers in the 1st and 7th districts. Mace has had a tumultuous relationship with former-President Trump, as even though she voted against impeachment, she criticized him heavily following Jan 6., voted to certify the election, and voted to hold Steve Bannon in contempt. Her opponent in SC-01, Katie Arrington, was the GOP nominee for the seat in 2018, where she defeated another Trump critic, then-Congressman Mark Sanford. Arrington went on to lose to
Democrat Joe Cunningham in the general election, who Mace unseated in 2020. Moving northeast to SC-07, Tom Rice has been in office since 2013 and voted for the second Trump impeachment, going so far as to call him “a would-be
tyrant”. There has been limited polling in this race, but a recent poll from the Trafalgar Group showed Rice at 38% in a
crowded field over his main rival, State Rep. Russell Fry, who had 21% support. Remember, South Carolina has a 50% threshold to avoid a runoff election.
- In Texas, we have a special election for the 34th congressional district because Democrat Filemon Vela resigned to take a job with a DC lobbying firm. The special election will be held using the current congressional lines, not the ones coming into effect in January of next year. Therefore, the district at play runs from the Brownsville area in the south, all the way up the coast before turning inland to the east of San Antonio. Republicans are pouring resources into the race in an attempt to not only set a narrative with a victory before heading into November, but also to test their Latino outreach efforts in
a part of the state where those voters have been moving right in recent elections. The district will become much more Democratic next year when the new lines drawn during redistricting kick in.
|Tues June 14||Maine Primary|
|ME State Senate 7 Special General|
|North Dakota Primary|
|South Carolina Primary|
|TX US House 34 Special General|
|Henderson, NV Mayoral primary|
|Reno, NV Mayoral primary|
|North Las Vegas, NV Mayoral primary|
|Tues June 21||DC Primary|
|Tues June 28||Illinois Primary|
New York Primary (US Senate, Statewide Offices, State Assembly)
|OK US Senate Special Dem Primary|
|OK US Senate Special GOP Primary|
|South Carolina runoff|
|NE US House 1 Special General|