DDHQ 2018 House Midterm Forecast

The 2018 House Midterm Election is bound to be one of the more interesting in recent memory. With Donald Trump in the White House, infighting on both sides of Congress, and an American public that is bursting at the seams we have a recipe for a perfect political storm. Keep your eye on this page, which houses our forecasts for all 435 congressional districts, and stick with us as we attempt to answer the ultimate questions: who will win majority control of the US House of Representatives?

Wondering how these forecasts are calculated? More info here. Check out our race ratings, which combine this model with a qualitative assessment of every House race (coming soon) and find our House news updates under Upcoming Races. DDHQ’s 2018 House Midterm Forecast is brought to you by G. Elliott Morris. Read even more in-depth statistics about the House midterms on his blog.

Last updated: September 10, 2017

 

2018 House Midterm Forecast


 

Generic Ballot Polling


The Democratic Party is ahead in generic ballot polls, earning 53.8% of the two-party vote share on average. They hold a 7.6 percentage point lead over the Republicans. We get all of our polling data from Huffington Post Pollster, which you can investigate here.

 

 

But, because Democrats are clustered in cities and face harsh gerrymanders, they aren’t expected to win an equivalent share of the seats in Congress. What does electoral geography tell us about the actual outcome?

 

District-level Seat Projections


Democrats: 207

Republicans: 228 (retain House majority)

Democrats are forecast to pick up 14 seats on November 6, 2018. Republicans will gain 1 seat, for a net gain of 13 seats for the Democratic Party. Those seats are:

District Dem 2016 (%) Clinton (%) Forecast Dem 2018 (%) Dem Win Prob.
CA-10 48.3 51.6 52.0 62
CA-21 43.3 58.2 52.2 63
CA-25 46.9 53.6 52.1 63
CA-39 42.8 54.6 50.5 53
CA-49 49.7 54.0 53.6 71
CO-06 45.6 54.9 52.0 62
FL-26 43.7 58.3 52.4 64
FL-27 45.1 60.1 63.7 98
MN-02 49.0 49.3 50.6 53
MN-03 43.1 55.1 50.9 55
NE-02 49.4 48.8 50.5 53
TX-23 49.3 51.8 52.6 65
VA-10 47.1 55.3 52.9 67
WA-08 39.8 51.6 55.4 80

 

Forecasts for every House seat:

 

You can see an interactive version of this map here.

A table of forecasts for every House seat can be found at the bottom of the page, due to the extremely long nature of the resulting list.

 

Who’s Vulnerable?

The graph below stacks each House seat above the percentage share of the vote I forecast for the Democratic candidate in the district. The gray shaded area represents a 6% margin of error — roughly what we expect given past error in the national generic ballot polls — identifying vulnerable seats that could be won by either Democrats or Republicans.

 

Race Ratings

Each seat is given a vulnerability rating based on the following scale for either party:

  • Tossup: win margin <5%
  • Lean Dem./Rep.: win margin >5% and <15%
  • Likely Dem./Rep.: win margin >15% and <25%
  • Safe Dem./Rep.: win margin >25%

Ratings also take into account qualitative factors like candidate characteristics, contest dynamics, fundraising, etc. And, as a general rule, no open seat forecast to change parties will ever be rated “Safe.”

Read our 2018 House Midterms Race Ratings here.

 

Of course, there is error in our forecast — measurable error. Asking the question “what if we’re wrong?” we come up with the following chance that Democrats take back the House majority.

 

Probabilistic Forecast


We can account for error in the forecast by simulating the election thousands of times, asking the computer each time to pick random error for national polling that is based on error from past predictions. Then for each “election’s” national error we also generate an error for each congressional district, basing each of those 435 individual errors on what the error is in districts that have performed the same in the past. (So, for example, if a simulated error adds 4% for the Democratic candidate in a district that voted for Romney and Trump by 5%, the error would around 4% for other districts that voted similarly. This is called correlated random error.) Here is the distribution of likely Democratic seat shares:

 

We can take all of those simulations of Democratic seat shares and further ask “what is the chance that Democrats win the election, given the chance that we Democrats or Republicans beat expectations?”

 

According to our 20,000 simulations of the 2018 House midterm election, Democrats have a 31.3.% chance of taking back the majority on November 6, 2018. Here is one way of visualizing that probability, where each blue rectangle represents a Democratic majority and each red rectangle is a Republican majority:

 

 


Note: This page will continually be updated, both with new data and new features, from now until Election Day! Come back regularly for a different look at the 2018 midterm race. If you notice something missing let us know.


 

Forecasts for all 435 House Seats:

 

District Dem 2016 (%) Clinton (%) Forecast Dem 2018 (%) Dem Win Prob.
AK-AL 41.7 41.6 44.9 23.3
AL-01 0.0 34.9 22.0 0.0
AL-02 45.4 33.7 43.6 18.0
AL-03 33.0 33.1 37.3 3.5
AL-04 0.0 17.8 15.3 0.0
AL-05 33.2 32.6 37.3 3.5
AL-06 25.4 26.9 31.2 0.4
AL-07 100.0 70.9 91.1 100.0
AR-01 0.0 31.7 20.7 0.0
AR-02 38.7 44.3 44.5 21.6
AR-03 0.0 33.0 21.2 0.0
AR-04 0.0 32.8 21.2 0.0
AZ-01 53.9 49.4 61.1 94.4
AZ-02 43.0 52.6 49.8 48.9
AZ-03 100.0 65.8 89.1 100.0
AZ-04 28.5 28.9 33.5 0.9
AZ-05 35.9 38.8 40.1 7.9
AZ-06 37.9 44.7 44.3 20.8
AZ-07 75.3 76.1 81.1 100.0
AZ-08 0.0 38.9 23.5 0.0
AZ-09 61.0 58.8 67.3 99.3
CA-01 40.9 39.4 43.6 18.0
CA-02 76.9 74.8 81.3 100.0
CA-03 59.4 56.7 65.8 98.8
CA-04 37.3 42.1 43.0 15.9
CA-05 76.9 74.0 81.0 100.0
CA-06 75.4 73.9 80.3 100.0
CA-07 51.2 56.1 61.5 95.0
CA-08 37.7 42.0 43.1 16.2
CA-09 57.4 59.8 66.0 98.9
CA-10 48.3 51.6 52.0 61.2
CA-11 72.1 75.9 79.4 100.0
CA-12 100.0 90.8 98.9 100.0
CA-13 90.8 92.8 95.1 100.0
CA-14 80.9 80.9 85.7 100.0
CA-15 73.8 74.3 79.6 100.0
CA-16 58.0 61.4 66.9 99.2
CA-17 100.0 78.3 94.9 100.0
CA-18 71.1 78.4 79.9 100.0
CA-19 73.9 77.2 80.8 100.0
CA-20 70.8 75.2 79.5 100.0
CA-21 43.3 58.2 52.2 62.3
CA-22 32.4 45.0 41.7 11.8
CA-23 30.8 38.3 38.3 4.7
CA-24 53.4 60.8 65.4 98.6
CA-25 46.9 53.6 52.1 61.8
CA-26 60.4 61.7 68.2 99.5
CA-27 67.4 69.9 74.8 100.0
CA-28 78.0 76.4 82.5 100.0
CA-29 100.0 82.2 95.5 100.0
CA-30 72.6 72.9 78.5 100.0
CA-31 56.1 61.2 65.9 98.8
CA-32 100.0 70.6 91.0 100.0
CA-33 66.4 71.9 75.1 100.0
CA-34 100.0 88.7 98.9 100.0
CA-35 72.4 71.6 77.9 100.0
CA-36 62.1 54.6 66.2 99.0
CA-37 100.0 89.9 98.5 100.0
CA-38 70.5 71.0 76.7 100.0
CA-39 42.8 54.6 50.5 52.8
CA-40 100.0 86.5 97.2 100.0
CA-41 65.0 64.8 71.7 99.9
CA-42 41.2 43.7 45.5 26.0
CA-43 76.1 82.4 83.9 100.0
CA-44 100.0 87.1 98.3 100.0
CA-45 41.4 52.9 49.2 45.5
CA-46 100.0 70.4 91.8 100.0
CA-47 63.7 66.9 71.8 99.9
CA-48 41.7 50.9 48.5 41.5
CA-49 49.7 54.0 53.6 69.6
CA-50 36.5 42.0 42.5 14.2
CA-51 72.8 75.9 79.8 100.0
CA-52 56.5 62.0 66.4 99.0
CA-53 67.0 68.5 74.1 100.0
CO-01 71.0 74.8 78.5 100.0
CO-02 60.5 61.7 65.2 98.5
CO-03 42.5 43.5 46.0 28.4
CO-04 33.3 37.4 39.2 6.1
CO-05 33.2 36.7 38.8 5.5
CO-06 45.6 54.9 52.0 61.2
CO-07 58.1 56.6 60.3 92.9
CT-01 65.5 62.1 70.8 99.9
CT-02 65.2 51.5 66.6 99.1
CT-03 69.0 58.0 71.0 99.9
CT-04 59.9 62.0 68.1 99.5
CT-05 58.0 52.1 63.3 97.1
DE-AL 57.5 56.0 65.5 98.7
FL-01 30.9 29.5 34.0 1.1
FL-02 30.8 31.6 34.7 1.4
FL-03 41.3 41.7 44.7 22.4
FL-04 28.2 35.4 35.0 1.6
FL-05 64.2 63.1 71.5 99.9
FL-06 41.4 41.2 44.6 22.0
FL-07 51.5 53.8 61.7 95.3
FL-08 34.0 39.2 40.2 8.1
FL-09 57.5 56.7 65.7 98.8
FL-10 64.9 63.9 72.2 99.9
FL-11 32.6 33.4 37.3 3.5
FL-12 31.4 40.3 39.4 6.5
FL-13 51.9 51.7 61.1 94.4
FL-14 61.8 59.5 68.0 99.5
FL-15 42.5 44.8 46.5 30.9
FL-16 40.2 44.5 45.3 25.1
FL-17 35.6 36.0 39.8 7.3
FL-18 44.6 45.3 46.8 32.4
FL-19 34.1 38.6 39.1 6.0
FL-20 80.3 81.6 85.7 100.0
FL-21 64.1 60.0 69.3 99.7
FL-22 58.9 58.1 66.1 98.9
FL-23 58.3 63.4 67.8 99.5
FL-24 100.0 84.4 96.4 100.0
FL-25 37.6 49.1 45.9 27.9
FL-26 43.7 58.3 52.4 63.4
FL-27 45.1 60.1 63.7 97.5
GA-01 0.0 42.0 24.8 0.0
GA-02 61.2 56.0 66.3 99.0
GA-03 31.7 33.8 36.0 2.3
GA-04 75.7 77.2 81.7 100.0
GA-05 84.4 87.7 90.1 100.0
GA-06 38.3 49.2 45.3 25.1
GA-07 39.6 46.7 45.9 27.9
GA-08 32.4 35.2 37.9 4.2
GA-09 0.0 19.9 16.1 0.0
GA-10 0.0 36.9 22.8 0.0
GA-11 32.6 36.9 38.6 5.2
GA-12 38.4 41.7 43.3 16.9
GA-13 100.0 72.7 91.8 100.0
GA-14 0.0 22.8 17.2 0.0
HI-01 76.0 67.4 78.0 100.0
HI-02 81.2 67.5 80.6 100.0
IA-01 46.2 48.1 49.6 47.7
IA-02 53.8 47.8 59.5 91.3
IA-03 42.6 48.1 47.9 38.2
IA-04 38.7 35.5 41.0 9.9
ID-01 31.8 28.5 32.9 0.7
ID-02 31.9 35.3 37.7 3.9
IL-01 74.1 77.9 81.2 100.0
IL-02 79.8 80.3 84.9 100.0
IL-03 100.0 58.0 86.0 100.0
IL-04 100.0 86.1 97.0 100.0
IL-05 71.1 74.7 78.5 100.0
IL-06 40.8 53.7 49.2 45.5
IL-07 84.2 90.5 91.0 100.0
IL-08 58.3 61.5 68.0 99.5
IL-09 66.5 73.8 75.9 100.0
IL-10 52.6 65.5 66.8 99.2
IL-11 60.4 62.5 68.5 99.6
IL-12 42.2 42.2 45.4 25.6
IL-13 40.3 47.1 46.4 30.4
IL-14 40.7 47.9 46.9 32.9
IL-15 0.0 25.7 18.4 0.0
IL-16 0.0 40.8 24.3 0.0
IL-17 60.3 49.6 63.4 97.2
IL-18 27.9 35.5 35.8 2.1
IN-01 100.0 56.6 85.5 100.0
IN-02 38.4 37.8 41.8 12.1
IN-03 24.7 31.6 31.8 0.5
IN-04 32.1 32.0 36.3 2.5
IN-05 35.8 43.8 42.9 15.5
IN-06 27.9 28.8 33.2 0.8
IN-07 62.7 62.0 69.4 99.7
IN-08 33.2 32.4 37.2 3.4
IN-09 42.8 35.9 42.3 13.6
KS-01 0.0 26.0 17.6 0.0
KS-02 34.9 40.1 44.2 20.4
KS-03 44.2 50.6 49.6 47.7
KS-04 32.8 35.4 37.2 3.4
KY-01 27.3 24.8 31.3 0.4
KY-02 0.0 29.0 19.7 0.0
KY-03 63.5 57.9 68.2 99.5
KY-04 28.7 31.0 34.4 1.3
KY-05 0.0 18.0 15.4 0.0
KY-06 38.9 41.9 43.6 18.0
LA-01 20.7 28.0 29.4 0.2
LA-02 100.0 77.1 93.5 100.0
LA-03 17.8 30.3 27.9 0.1
LA-04 28.8 37.7 36.1 2.4
LA-05 0.0 34.9 22.0 0.0
LA-06 24.7 32.4 33.0 0.8
MA-01 100.0 61.0 87.2 100.0
MA-02 100.0 60.4 87.0 100.0
MA-03 68.8 62.2 65.7 98.8
MA-04 70.2 62.8 73.4 100.0
MA-05 100.0 72.9 91.9 100.0
MA-06 100.0 59.5 86.6 100.0
MA-07 100.0 87.6 97.6 100.0
MA-08 72.5 63.7 74.9 100.0
MA-09 62.4 55.7 66.8 99.2
MD-01 29.9 35.1 36.6 2.8
MD-02 65.2 62.8 71.0 99.9
MD-03 65.1 66.2 72.2 99.9
MD-04 77.6 80.2 84.7 100.0
MD-05 69.6 66.1 74.4 100.0
MD-06 58.3 58.4 62.0 95.7
MD-07 77.5 78.6 83.1 100.0
MD-08 63.9 67.6 73.2 100.0
ME-01 58.1 57.9 65.6 98.7
ME-02 45.2 44.4 47.7 37.1
MI-01 42.2 38.7 43.1 16.2
MI-02 34.2 40.6 40.9 9.7
MI-03 38.7 45.0 44.7 22.4
MI-04 34.3 36.8 39.4 6.5
MI-05 63.6 52.2 66.0 98.9
MI-06 38.3 45.5 44.8 22.9
MI-07 42.1 41.0 44.8 22.9
MI-08 41.2 46.5 46.5 30.9
MI-09 60.8 54.1 65.4 98.6
MI-10 33.9 33.1 36.8 3.0
MI-11 43.2 47.7 48.0 38.8
MI-12 68.7 63.8 73.1 100.0
MI-13 83.1 81.3 86.9 100.0
MI-14 80.8 81.2 85.7 100.0
MN-01 50.4 41.9 45.9 27.9
MN-02 49.0 49.3 50.6 53.4
MN-03 43.1 55.1 50.9 55.1
MN-04 62.7 66.8 71.3 99.9
MN-05 75.6 79.9 82.7 100.0
MN-06 34.3 36.0 39.1 6.0
MN-07 52.6 33.4 53.3 68.1
MN-08 50.3 41.6 55.4 78.0
MO-01 79.1 80.4 84.6 100.0
MO-02 39.2 44.6 44.8 22.9
MO-03 29.2 29.5 34.1 1.2
MO-04 29.1 31.0 34.6 1.4
MO-05 60.6 57.1 66.5 99.1
MO-06 29.5 33.4 35.8 2.1
MO-07 28.9 26.0 32.6 0.6
MO-08 23.4 21.8 28.2 0.1
MS-01 28.9 33.1 35.4 1.9
MS-02 69.8 64.4 73.8 100.0
MS-03 31.5 37.5 38.3 4.7
MS-04 30.0 28.9 34.2 1.2
MT-AL 41.9 38.9 43.0 15.9
NC-01 70.3 68.9 75.8 100.0
NC-02 43.3 45.0 47.0 33.4
NC-03 32.8 37.9 39.1 6.0
NC-04 68.2 70.7 75.5 100.0
NC-05 41.6 41.0 44.6 22.0
NC-06 40.8 42.5 44.8 22.9
NC-07 39.1 40.9 43.4 17.3
NC-08 41.2 42.3 44.9 23.3
NC-09 41.8 44.0 45.9 27.9
NC-10 36.9 37.4 40.9 9.7
NC-11 35.9 34.9 39.5 6.7
NC-12 67.0 70.7 74.9 100.0
NC-13 43.9 45.2 46.4 30.4
ND-AL 25.5 30.2 32.6 0.6
NE-01 30.5 38.6 38.3 4.7
NE-02 49.4 48.8 50.5 52.8
NE-03 0.0 21.1 16.6 0.0
NH-01 50.8 49.2 59.5 91.3
NH-02 52.3 51.3 60.2 92.7
NJ-01 62.0 62.7 69.3 99.7
NJ-02 38.6 47.6 45.7 27.0
NJ-03 39.6 46.8 45.9 27.9
NJ-04 34.5 42.4 41.7 11.8
NJ-05 52.2 49.4 60.4 93.1
NJ-06 64.6 58.1 68.8 99.6
NJ-07 44.3 50.6 49.7 48.3
NJ-08 80.6 77.9 84.4 100.0
NJ-09 71.3 66.0 75.2 100.0
NJ-10 87.8 86.9 91.4 100.0
NJ-11 40.1 49.5 47.2 34.5
NJ-12 66.3 67.1 73.2 100.0
NM-01 65.1 59.5 63.1 96.9
NM-02 37.2 44.3 48.3 40.4
NM-03 62.4 58.5 67.9 99.5
NV-01 68.2 65.4 73.5 100.0
NV-02 38.8 43.3 44.1 20.0
NV-03 50.6 49.5 53.3 68.1
NV-04 52.2 52.6 61.6 95.1
NY-01 41.0 43.6 45.4 25.6
NY-02 37.5 45.3 44.3 20.8
NY-03 52.8 53.1 62.1 95.8
NY-04 59.6 54.9 65.1 98.5
NY-05 86.8 87.1 91.0 100.0
NY-06 73.0 67.0 76.4 100.0
NY-07 90.8 89.3 93.8 100.0
NY-08 100.0 86.2 97.1 100.0
NY-09 100.0 85.3 96.7 100.0
NY-10 78.1 80.6 84.2 100.0
NY-11 37.4 45.0 44.1 20.0
NY-12 83.2 86.1 88.8 100.0
NY-13 92.8 94.5 97.7 100.0
NY-14 82.9 79.7 86.2 100.0
NY-15 96.5 95.0 98.8 100.0
NY-16 100.0 76.9 93.4 100.0
NY-17 100.0 60.4 87.0 100.0
NY-18 55.6 49.0 60.9 94.0
NY-19 45.7 46.1 47.7 37.1
NY-20 67.9 57.1 70.1 99.8
NY-21 31.6 42.6 40.4 8.5
NY-22 46.9 41.8 46.6 31.4
NY-23 42.4 42.1 45.5 26.0
NY-24 39.4 51.9 47.8 37.7
NY-25 56.2 58.7 64.9 98.3
NY-26 74.6 60.3 74.5 100.0
NY-27 32.8 37.1 38.8 5.5
OH-01 40.8 46.6 46.4 30.4
OH-02 33.5 41.6 40.9 9.7
OH-03 68.6 70.1 75.5 100.0
OH-04 32.0 32.3 36.6 2.8
OH-05 29.1 36.7 36.9 3.1
OH-06 29.3 27.8 33.5 0.9
OH-07 31.2 34.4 37.0 3.2
OH-08 28.2 32.0 34.6 1.4
OH-09 68.7 61.7 72.2 99.9
OH-10 33.8 46.2 42.8 15.2
OH-11 80.3 82.6 86.0 100.0
OH-12 30.9 44.1 40.6 9.0
OH-13 67.7 53.4 68.5 99.6
OH-14 37.4 44.0 43.7 18.4
OH-15 33.8 41.9 41.2 10.4
OH-16 34.7 41.3 45.4 25.6
OK-01 0.0 34.8 39.0 5.8
OK-02 24.7 23.8 29.7 0.2
OK-03 21.7 22.1 27.6 0.1
OK-04 27.3 30.1 33.4 0.9
OK-05 39.2 42.8 44.2 20.4
OR-01 61.7 62.4 69.1 99.7
OR-02 28.1 39.2 37.3 3.5
OR-03 100.0 75.9 93.0 100.0
OR-04 58.3 50.1 62.6 96.4
OR-05 55.4 52.3 62.1 95.8
PA-01 82.2 81.4 86.5 100.0
PA-02 90.2 92.2 94.6 100.0
PA-03 0.0 36.4 22.6 0.0
PA-04 33.9 38.8 40.0 7.7
PA-05 32.8 35.0 38.0 4.3
PA-06 42.7 50.3 48.8 43.2
PA-07 40.5 51.2 48.1 39.3
PA-08 45.5 49.9 49.1 44.9
PA-09 36.7 28.1 37.2 3.4
PA-10 29.8 31.4 35.1 1.7
PA-11 36.3 37.6 41.8 12.1
PA-12 38.2 39.2 42.3 13.6
PA-13 100.0 67.3 89.7 100.0
PA-14 74.4 68.4 77.6 100.0
PA-15 39.4 46.0 50.0 50.0
PA-16 44.4 46.4 47.2 34.5
PA-17 53.8 44.8 58.4 88.5
PA-18 0.0 39.9 23.9 0.0
RI-01 64.8 63.4 71.0 99.9
RI-02 65.4 53.7 67.5 99.4
SC-01 38.6 43.0 43.9 19.2
SC-02 37.4 40.7 42.4 13.9
SC-03 27.1 30.2 33.4 0.9
SC-04 31.6 36.4 38.0 4.3
SC-05 39.5 40.4 42.4 13.9
SC-06 71.8 68.8 76.5 100.0
SC-07 38.9 40.3 43.0 15.9
SD-AL 35.9 34.0 38.3 4.7
TN-01 16.4 20.4 24.3 0.0
TN-02 24.4 31.3 35.7 2.1
TN-03 30.3 31.6 35.4 1.9
TN-04 35.0 28.5 36.5 2.7
TN-05 62.6 59.7 68.5 99.6
TN-06 23.5 24.6 29.1 0.1
TN-07 24.6 29.5 31.8 0.5
TN-08 26.7 31.6 32.8 0.7
TN-09 80.6 79.7 85.1 100.0
TX-01 24.6 25.9 30.5 0.3
TX-02 37.3 45.1 44.1 20.0
TX-03 36.1 42.6 46.6 31.4
TX-04 0.0 22.4 17.1 0.0
TX-05 0.0 35.4 22.2 0.0
TX-06 40.1 43.6 44.9 23.3
TX-07 43.8 50.7 49.5 47.2
TX-08 0.0 24.7 18.0 0.0
TX-09 80.6 81.5 85.8 100.0
TX-10 40.1 45.2 45.6 26.5
TX-11 0.0 19.7 16.0 0.0
TX-12 27.9 34.2 35.3 1.8
TX-13 0.0 17.5 15.2 0.0
TX-14 38.1 39.8 42.4 13.9
TX-15 60.3 58.6 67.9 99.5
TX-16 100.0 71.4 74.6 100.0
TX-17 36.7 40.8 42.1 13.0
TX-18 75.7 79.3 82.5 100.0
TX-19 0.0 24.5 17.0 0.0
TX-20 100.0 64.0 88.4 100.0
TX-21 39.0 44.7 44.8 22.9
TX-22 40.5 45.9 46.0 28.4
TX-23 49.3 51.8 52.6 64.5
TX-24 41.2 46.7 46.6 31.4
TX-25 39.3 42.2 43.9 19.2
TX-26 30.8 36.1 37.5 3.7
TX-27 38.3 37.8 41.8 12.1
TX-28 67.9 60.2 71.3 99.9
TX-29 75.1 73.7 80.1 100.0
TX-30 84.4 81.2 87.5 100.0
TX-31 38.5 43.3 44.0 19.6
TX-32 0.0 51.0 28.3 0.1
TX-33 73.7 75.5 80.1 100.0
TX-34 62.7 61.1 69.1 99.7
TX-35 66.6 67.8 73.6 100.0
TX-36 0.0 25.9 18.5 0.0
UT-01 28.6 31.1 34.4 1.3
UT-02 35.5 41.0 41.7 11.8
UT-03 26.5 33.0 33.2 0.8
UT-04 43.4 45.3 47.2 34.5
VA-01 37.9 43.5 43.8 18.8
VA-02 38.6 48.2 45.0 23.8
VA-03 66.8 66.6 73.2 100.0
VA-04 57.9 61.3 67.7 99.4
VA-05 41.7 44.2 45.0 23.8
VA-06 33.2 36.9 38.9 5.6
VA-07 42.3 46.6 47.1 33.9
VA-08 71.5 77.9 79.9 100.0
VA-09 29.2 28.4 33.7 1.0
VA-10 47.1 55.3 52.9 66.1
VA-11 100.0 70.9 91.1 100.0
VT-AL 100.0 65.2 88.8 100.0
WA-01 55.4 58.9 64.7 98.2
WA-02 64.0 62.1 70.1 99.8
WA-03 38.2 46.0 44.9 23.3
WA-04 0.0 37.7 23.1 0.0
WA-05 40.4 42.8 44.8 22.9
WA-06 61.5 56.7 66.8 99.2
WA-07 100.0 87.1 98.3 100.0
WA-08 39.8 51.6 55.4 78.0
WA-09 72.9 75.2 79.5 100.0
WA-10 58.7 56.2 65.2 98.5
WI-01 31.8 44.6 41.2 10.4
WI-02 68.8 69.4 75.3 100.0
WI-03 100.0 47.6 82.0 100.0
WI-04 100.0 77.2 93.6 100.0
WI-05 30.5 39.4 38.6 5.2
WI-06 39.5 41.1 43.6 18.0
WI-07 38.3 39.2 42.3 13.6
WI-08 37.3 40.7 41.5 11.2
WV-01 31.0 28.0 34.4 1.3
WV-02 41.8 30.9 40.8 9.4
WV-03 26.1 24.3 28.8 0.1
WY-AL 32.6 24.3 32.8 0.7