With less than 30 days left until Election Day, our model took a turn towards Republicans this week, though Democrats are still strong favorites to retake the House of Representatives. The generic ballot national environment shifted… Read More
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 1, 2018
With 36 days remaining, our model continues to track towards Democrats in the House while holding steady for Republicans in the Senate. The generic ballot national environment shifted down to D+8 this week but was… Read More
Voter Registration Changes in Pennsylvania and the 2018 midterms
Those long-time readers of the Desk know of my special affinity (some would call it an obsession) with the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Throughout 2015 and 2016, I tracked voter registration changes as it finally ceased… Read More
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 24, 2018
With less than 50 days until Election Day, our model moves slightly towards Republicans for both chambers this week in the aggregate. The generic ballot national environment receded down to D+8.7 from last week’s high of… Read More
State Spotlight: The Alabama 2017 Special Election
Doug Jones’ (D) victory over Roy Moore (R) was one of the most remarkable election upsets of the past decade. Alabama – with an R+14 partisan lean – is one of the most staunchly Republican… Read More
State Spotlight: A Look Back at Missouri 2012
Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill’s (D) race against state attorney general Josh Hawley (R) is one of the key races that will decide control of the Senate in this November’s midterm election. Despite Missouri’s steady march… Read More
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 17, 2018
With 50 days left until Election Day, our model moves slightly towards Republicans this week in the aggregate. The generic ballot national environment continued to go up for Democrats, now sitting at D+9.3, but the… Read More
Forecaster and model assessments of the House and Senate
While we have our own House and Senate model, which currently give the Democrats an 80.13% chance of winning the former with 224 seats, and the Republicans an 84.77% chance of retaining the latter with… Read More
Senate Model Comparison: Øptimus and FiveThirtyEight’s Predictions
Earlier today, FiveThirtyEight released their much-anticipated Senate model. We thought it’d be interesting to see how the Øptimus model predictions compare to theirs. The numbers below are all based off of our 9/11 model update and… Read More
Rhode Island Primary Preview
Fourty-seven states down, two to go in primary 2018. Tonight, it’s Rhode Island’s turn. The state has been lopsidedly Democratic in the Presidential vote for decades, but it elected Republican Governors for twelve straight years… Read More