Continuing our look at Michigan, while the Democrats won the open Gubernatorial race there by a comfortable 10% last year, the Senatorial result was something better for Republicans. Senator Debbie Stabenow (D) was initially elected… Read More
2018 Midterm Forecasting model analysis- How well did we do?
UPDATE: The post below has been updated to reflect the Democratic flip of CA-21 and the results of the Mississippi special election. It is now up-to-date as of November 29th. Introduction The following document presents… Read More
Øptimus Election Modeling Preliminary Recap
Now that Election Day is “over” (minus California and a few close races), we have a preliminary look at how our legislative model has performed. The following analysis only includes races that have been called,… Read More
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update November 5, 2018
On the eve of Election Day, there is a high likelihood of split chamber control of Congress once the dust settles. In the past week, the national environment shifted from D+7.9 to D+7.1 while presidential… Read More
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update November 2, 2018
As it was at the beginning of the week, the model is stable in the House and moved slightly towards Republicans in the Senate since Monday. The national environment shifted from D+7.9 compared to D+7…. Read More
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 29, 2018
For the second straight week, the model is stable in the House and moves slightly towards Republicans in the Senate. The national environment is also stable, sitting at D+7.9 compared to D+7.8 last week. With… Read More
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 22, 2018
After the big movement in the model at the end of last week due to the record-breaking fundraising quarter by Democrats, the model settles down this week. The national environment continues to creep back up… Read More
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 18, 2018
As predicted, Q3 FEC reports shook up the race a bit, with House Democrats now overwhelming favorites to take a majority and Senate Democrats somewhat improving their standing (though Republicans are still strong favorites). The… Read More
State Spotlight: Montana Senate
Montana is another key state deciding control of the Senate in this year’s midterm election. Senator Jon Tester (D) is pursuing his third-term against Montana state auditor Matt Rosendale (R). Despite his deep-red state’s R+11… Read More
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 15, 2018
With just 3 weeks left until Election Day, our model is fairly confident in the outcomes of both chambers. While there is still time for change, and while great odds are not the same as… Read More