With Thursday’s release of a Public Policy Polling poll from Montana showing a tied race in Montana’s Senate race between Republican incumbent Senator Steve Daines and incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Bullock, we finally have a poll from most every competitive Senate race in 2020. The Democrats need four gains, given Alabama will go to the GOP, to get to a 50/50 tie, where … [Read more...] about The GOP’s Best Hope At Holding The Senate? Triage
Continuing our look at Michigan, while the Democrats won the open Gubernatorial race there by a comfortable 10% last year, the Senatorial result was something better for Republicans. Senator Debbie Stabenow (D) was initially elected to the chamber in 2000, after representing a swingy Lansing-area seat in the House. She was reelected by increasingly large margins in 2006 and … [Read more...] about Michigan Senate 2018: Stabenow Wins a 4th Term, But It’s Close(-ish)
UPDATE: The post below has been updated to reflect the Democratic flip of CA-21 and the results of the Mississippi special election. It is now up-to-date as of November 29th. Introduction The following document presents preliminary analysis of the performance of the Øptimus House and Senate models, as well as how they compare to other forecasting models and ratings. Overall, … [Read more...] about 2018 Midterm Forecasting model analysis- How well did we do?
Now that Election Day is “over” (minus California and a few close races), we have a preliminary look at how our legislative model has performed. The following analysis only includes races that have been called, so it will change over the next few days. This was our first dive into public forecasting- and we’re very pleased with how it’s turned out. The House model pretty … [Read more...] about Øptimus Election Modeling Preliminary Recap
On the eve of Election Day, there is a high likelihood of split chamber control of Congress once the dust settles. In the past week, the national environment shifted from D+7.9 to D+7.1 while presidential approval dipped to a net negative 14 points. It is a longshot for Republicans to keep the House, though Democrats do have a very narrow path to taking the Senate. Details … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update November 5, 2018