Though election season, Republican and Democratic strategists in national organizations like the NRCC, DCCC, Campaign Leadership Fund, and House Majority PAC spend considerable time planning out which races to allocate money into to maximize their side's chances of victory in as many races as possible. We took a look at our Congressional Election Model and wanted to create a … [Read more...] about Introducing the Øptimus 2018 Election Forecasting Simulator!
Last night, Georgia had it's final statewide election of the year. In November, State Rep. Brad Raffensperger (R) finished with 49.1% to ex-Rep. John Barrow's (D) 48.7% for Secretary of State. The balance went to a Libertarian. As Georgia is the only state that requires general election runoffs, the second round was held yesterday. Raffensperger, with the lean of the state … [Read more...] about Georgia Secretary of State Runoff: Post-mortem
UPDATE: The post below has been updated to reflect the Democratic flip of CA-21 and the results of the Mississippi special election. It is now up-to-date as of November 29th. Introduction The following document presents preliminary analysis of the performance of the Øptimus House and Senate models, as well as how they compare to other forecasting models and ratings. Overall, … [Read more...] about 2018 Midterm Forecasting model analysis- How well did we do?
Now that Election Day is “over” (minus California and a few close races), we have a preliminary look at how our legislative model has performed. The following analysis only includes races that have been called, so it will change over the next few days. This was our first dive into public forecasting- and we’re very pleased with how it’s turned out. The House model pretty … [Read more...] about Øptimus Election Modeling Preliminary Recap
On the eve of Election Day, there is a high likelihood of split chamber control of Congress once the dust settles. In the past week, the national environment shifted from D+7.9 to D+7.1 while presidential approval dipped to a net negative 14 points. It is a longshot for Republicans to keep the House, though Democrats do have a very narrow path to taking the Senate. Details … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update November 5, 2018