When Election Twitter explores the result of a special or regular election, comparisons to previous elections inevitably arise, as this niche world obsessed with numbers attempts to deduce what has changed, and, for the multitude of partisans involved, which side benefited from the race. Someone unfamiliar with the particularities of contests may just assume that the party … [Read more...] about The Baseline Problem
Predictions
2018 Election Forecasting Simulator- Senate Update
Last week, we unveiled the beta release of our 2018 Election Forecasting Simulator. We've now enabled Senate functionality, giving you the ability to re-allocate money in the most visible races of the year. Can you concoct a scenario where Democrats would have actually been favorites to keep the Senate, or one in which Republicans have their own red wave to counter the … [Read more...] about 2018 Election Forecasting Simulator- Senate Update
What was the Democratic ceiling in the House?
When we introduced the 2018 Election Forecasting Simulator yesterday, we included several different scenarios to play around with. Today we're taking a look at one in particular, which maximizes the expected number of Democratic victories in the House. How many seats did they leave on the table? As it turns out, not all that many. Democrats were able to pick up 40 seats in … [Read more...] about What was the Democratic ceiling in the House?
Introducing the Øptimus 2018 Election Forecasting Simulator!
Though election season, Republican and Democratic strategists in national organizations like the NRCC, DCCC, Campaign Leadership Fund, and House Majority PAC spend considerable time planning out which races to allocate money into to maximize their side's chances of victory in as many races as possible. We took a look at our Congressional Election Model and wanted to create a … [Read more...] about Introducing the Øptimus 2018 Election Forecasting Simulator!
Georgia Secretary of State Runoff: Post-mortem
Last night, Georgia had it's final statewide election of the year. In November, State Rep. Brad Raffensperger (R) finished with 49.1% to ex-Rep. John Barrow's (D) 48.7% for Secretary of State. The balance went to a Libertarian. As Georgia is the only state that requires general election runoffs, the second round was held yesterday. Raffensperger, with the lean of the state … [Read more...] about Georgia Secretary of State Runoff: Post-mortem