Predictions Archives - Decision Desk HQ

Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 17, 2018

September 17, 2018 at 5:49 pm ∙ House, Predictions, Senate ∙ Scott Tranter

With 50 days left until Election Day, our model moves slightly towards Republicans this week in the aggregate. The generic ballot national environment continued to go up for Democrats, now sitting at D+9.3, but the… Read More

Forecaster and model assessments of the House and Senate

September 17, 2018 at 12:00 pm ∙ House, Predictions, Senate ∙ Brandon Finnigan

While we have our own House and Senate model, which currently give the Democrats an 80.13% chance of winning the former with 224 seats, and the Republicans an 84.77% chance of retaining the latter with… Read More

Senate Model Comparison: Øptimus and FiveThirtyEight’s Predictions

September 12, 2018 at 5:42 pm ∙ Methodology, Predictions, Senate ∙ Alex Alduncin

Earlier today, FiveThirtyEight released their much-anticipated Senate model. We thought it’d be interesting to see how the Øptimus model predictions compare to theirs. The numbers below are all based off of our 9/11 model update and… Read More

Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 10, 2018

September 10, 2018 at 6:49 pm ∙ House, Predictions, Race Update, Senate ∙ Scott Tranter

With less than 2 months until Election Day, our model continues to shift towards Democratic control in the House while holding steady on Republican chances in the Senate. The generic ballot national environment generates most… Read More

Analyzing Delaware’s State Legislature Post-Primary

September 7, 2018 at 5:31 pm ∙ House, Predictions, Senate ∙ Chaz Nuttycombe

Now that the great state of Delaware has finished their primaries, DecisionDeskHQ is able to rate their state legislatures. Though Democrats could have lost control of the State Senate back in February 2017 during a… Read More

Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 3, 2018

September 4, 2018 at 1:26 am ∙ House, Predictions, Race Update, Senate ∙ Scott Tranter

With 9 weeks to go until Election Day, our model displays a continuing shift towards Democratic chances in the House while the Senate moves more modestly towards Democrats as well. The big takeaway this week… Read More

Øptimus Legislative Model: Update August 27, 2018

August 28, 2018 at 9:11 am ∙ House, Predictions, Race Update, Senate ∙ Scott Tranter

As we approach the 2-month mark until Election Day 2018, the Øptimus Model remains steady at the aggregate levels for both the House and Senate. Republicans remain the strong favorites to retain control of the Senate,… Read More

Monday Morning News And Notes

August 27, 2018 at 10:57 am ∙ Governor, Predictions, Race Update, Senate ∙ Drew McCoy

Arizona Senator John McCain passed away this weekend after a battle with cancer. Governor Doug Ducey will name a replacement, who according to state law must be a Republican, to serve until a special election… Read More

Analyzing AK & WY’s State Legislatures Post-Primary

August 23, 2018 at 2:35 am ∙ House, Mapping, Predictions, Senate ∙ Chaz Nuttycombe

While there are a few races that are too early/close to call in Alaska (specifically in HD-15’s Republican primary, where an R incumbent who caucuses with Democrats is down by 4 votes) the Desk is… Read More

Decision Desk Results August 21, 2018

August 21, 2018 at 5:00 pm ∙ Predictions, Results ∙ Brandon Finnigan

You can find our results for tonight’s primaries here. We have a refreshed DDHQ/Øptimus legislative model out today (signup is free) and the key races to watch are: Wyoming House Pre-primary a 90% Safe R… Read More

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